Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f752c82a3eb085bc332d3c3a8cafb1f6624583ce604eb0c09d72dcae228abc1

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,456,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,010,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,456,737 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	16c	64,929$10,594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,594.38	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	24c	31,562$7,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,714.46	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	76c	22,059$16,842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,216.52	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	21,773$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.39	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	17c	20,353$3,524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,523.89	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	18,261$1,482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,481.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	21c	17,322$3,682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,682.4	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	43c	17,067$7,417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,417.17	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	40c	16,133$6,486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,485.54	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	18c	15,764$2,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,906.69	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	15,479$2,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,455.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	25c	15,450$3,914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,914.27	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	14,041$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.74	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	13c	13,724$1,832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,832.44	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	22c	11,660$2,548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,548.32	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	33c	11,342$3,699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,699.21	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	38c	11,253$4,331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,331.45	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	79c	9,934$7,879 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,054.59	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	9,641$2,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,004.98	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	8c	8,445$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.22	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	8,209$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.5	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	14c	8,102$1,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,106.59	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	15c	7,386$1,135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.09	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	40c	7,288$2,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,898.77	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	63c	6,861$4,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,519.96	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	6,678$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.49	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	26c	6,482$1,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,713.38	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	25c	6,048$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	6,000$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.48	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	5,951$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	5,898$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.62	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	14c	5,680$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.19	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes	6c	5,531$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…0d7abacked Yes	7c	5,525$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.97	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	46c	5,369$2,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,897.61	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	38c	5,322$2,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,029.94	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes	9c	4,989$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.04	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	4,900$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.66	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	33c	4,629$1,529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,528.97	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	9c	4,570$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.31	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	4,566$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	35c	4,534$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.47	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	4,500$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.32	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	4,467$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93e8…c88bbacked Yes	34c	4,399$1,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,487.52	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	34c	4,192$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,422.17	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,115$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	47c	4,067$1,901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,166.04	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	10c	3,835$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.37	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	3,806$2,802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.39	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,694$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.23	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	3c	3,522$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.53	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	8c	3,508$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.44	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	3,500$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	42c	3,452$1,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,453.13	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes	16c	3,405$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.5	59	20.3%12 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	10c	3,387$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.08	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,352$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.77	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	6c	3,214$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.73	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	44c	3,058$1,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,360	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	9c	2,999$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.52	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	18c	2,844$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	53c	2,750$1,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452.2	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	2,698$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.81	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	32c	2,648$852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.94	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	49c	2,579$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,275	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	22c	2,540$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.22	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	15c	2,527$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.31	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	12c	2,387$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.24	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c34…fe27backed No	38c	2,345$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,444.27	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+160.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7369…5f41backed No	54c	2,188$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,010.49	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	48c	2,168$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.15	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No	73c	2,149$1,576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$573.27	29	75.9%22 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	16c	2,113$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.01	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	45c	2,085$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$947.78	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,068$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.82	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	22c	2,000$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.4	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes	50c	2,000$1,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked No	35c	2,000$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.99	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…751ebacked No	50c	1,951$973 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$977.35	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	1,950$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.87	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	10c	1,942$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.06	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3327…0957backed Yes	40c	1,918$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.22	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	9c	1,900$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.65	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	27c	1,860$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	4c	1,818$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.84	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	8c	1,764$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.5	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	40c	1,759$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.94	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92c7…0430backed Yes	18c	1,747$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.09	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	1,746$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.16	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No	71c	1,745$1,242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.84	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	19c	1,719$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.44	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	12c	1,700$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.5	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	25c	1,680$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.17	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	36c	1,680$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.22	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event