Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce678abbbf423f648e3ad0f936340bcf565117f63872976da9e33df3b120d25e

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,988,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,289,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,988,018 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	75,404$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.52	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	10c	60,494$6,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,164.68	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	19c	39,663$7,565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,564.93	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ed…e29fbacked Yes	0c	31,009$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	30,369$2,587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,586.72	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	30,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	27c	21,910$5,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,923.68	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	40c	21,835$8,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,737.37	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	4c	19,418$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.03	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	18,915$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.47	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	17c	18,311$3,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,095.82	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	16c	17,472$2,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,739.77	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	17,274$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.43	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	14c	16,049$2,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,318.05	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	15,108$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.12	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	12c	15,097$1,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,744.89	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	14,211$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.99	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	19c	14,062$2,611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,611.13	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	13,711$1,241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240.69	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	7c	12,600$875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$874.61	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	11,003$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930.83	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	11,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	12c	10,888$1,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.93	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	10,689$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.82	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	27c	10,666$2,913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,912.66	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	40c	10,411$4,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,169.09	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	20c	10,250$2,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,090.12	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	2c	10,000$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.42	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	9,900$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.98	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	10c	8,414$818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.25	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	8,326$6,598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,728.71	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	13c	8,200$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	7,980$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.69	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	13c	7,604$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.3	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	11c	7,490$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.32	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	6,802$868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867.7	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	31c	6,793$2,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,116.69	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	66c	6,689$4,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,268.91	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,679$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.74	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	6,666$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.65	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	16c	6,188$963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962.69	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	6,000$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.69	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e1…62c8backed No	63c	5,864$3,721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,143.41	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	5,850$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.64	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	20c	5,765$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,181.01	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	26c	5,589$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,456.58	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	12c	5,399$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.5	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	73c	5,137$3,774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,773.96	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	5,003$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.89	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes	1c	4,917$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.78	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	31c	4,878$1,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,517.67	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	11c	4,863$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.62	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes	16c	4,837$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	4,627$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.62	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	9c	4,624$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.57	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	7c	4,500$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.5	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	4,480$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	7c	4,362$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.12	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	60c	4,347$2,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,609.49	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	13c	4,200$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.57	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,122$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	2c	4,119$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.31	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed No	68c	4,094$2,771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,322.16	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed No	75c	4,000$2,992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,007.8	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	21c	3,997$829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.88	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	68c	3,874$2,649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,225.5	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	18c	3,574$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	3,402$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.6	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	17c	3,400$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.09	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	3,342$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	15c	3,296$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	3c	3,145$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.26	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	3,144$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.42	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	59c	3,000$1,759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,759.27	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	11c	3,000$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.5	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4d…8ab0backed Yes	17c	2,989$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	11c	2,941$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a57…3755backed Yes	1c	2,814$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No	55c	2,784$1,519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,264.66	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	17c	2,781$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.42	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Yes	13c	2,753$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	11c	2,723$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.41	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	2,696$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.01	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	21c	2,675$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.37	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes	16c	2,585$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	16c	2,542$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,507$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.31	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee2…6646backed Yes	1c	2,462$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	13c	2,447$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.71	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No	79c	2,412$1,904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.2	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	8c	2,368$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.06	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf336…c654backed Yes	17c	2,367$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.49	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+148.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd4db…8ea1backed Yes	9c	2,338$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes	26c	2,288$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-61%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	2,247$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.21	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e8…c88bbacked Yes	16c	2,215$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.14	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…7173backed No	77c	2,207$1,692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.81	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,200$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.66	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,085$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.54	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x905a…11bebacked No	67c	2,061$1,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.93	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event