Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90efba18a797c85610d23b1da4b99ffaad4c39e3d8f69e7040e8864eb597d52

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,216,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $644,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,216,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	37,707$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.61	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	30,480$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	22,981$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	20,885$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.71	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	18,616$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	17,952$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	17,771$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	1c	15,975$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.42	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	15,442$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	13,937$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.06	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	13,932$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.23	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	5c	13,334$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.8	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	0c	11,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	10,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66b…20c1backed Yes	0c	9,438$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+1,610.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	6c	8,840$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.61	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,393$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	7,416$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.33	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	7,398$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.44	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	7,299$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.44	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	4c	7,128$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.65	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	6,661$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.19	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xce45…9e20backed Yes	0c	6,279$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	6,199$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.93	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	6,077$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.19	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	6,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	5,637$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.29	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,027$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.09	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd14e…8b93backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48be…a5c2backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	9c	5,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.99	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	3c	4,838$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.05	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	1c	4,731$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	7c	4,598$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	5c	4,589$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.75	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	4,385$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.96	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	1c	4,236$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.18	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	4,228$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.8	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	4,087$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	4,068$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	3,622$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	0c	3,350$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	0c	3,123$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fae…6a71backed Yes	6c	3,053$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	2c	2,867$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.64	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fa…600fbacked Yes	1c	2,810$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	2,626$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.59	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,601$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.34	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes	5c	2,600$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.4	176	28.4%50 W · 126 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	1c	2,519$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	2c	2,356$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74cc…d86bbacked Yes	1c	2,354$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+445.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	2,244$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.06	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	2c	2,227$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.08	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,182$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.28	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes	7c	2,067$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.29	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	2,046$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,020$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	10c	1,911$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.21	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	11c	1,818$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3038…fdebbacked Yes	9c	1,761$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	78	26.9%21 W · 57 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff1…bd17backed Yes	2c	1,700$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	3c	1,632$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	1c	1,597$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf62f…990bbacked Yes	6c	1,509$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.89	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-63%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa230…5f3fbacked Yes	9c	1,500$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.05	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	1,400$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.64	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…260ebacked Yes	1c	1,384$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	6c	1,366$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.74	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf379…36c0backed Yes	7c	1,342$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.21	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	6c	1,296$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes	6c	1,234$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	243	26.7%65 W · 178 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	4c	1,162$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd651…c8a1backed Yes	3c	1,108$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.57	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,104$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.47	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	4c	1,100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes	1c	1,019$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+196.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,005$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce5a…0a70backed Yes	11c	1,002$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+152.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	999.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	999.98$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	10c	999.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	7c	993.27$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.06	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd272…fa58backed Yes	6c	977.21$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.84	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+193.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	9c	911.84$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.95	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…93eebacked Yes	9c	906.43$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	9c	891.76$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.12	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	837.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	2c	819.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	2c	800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a0…3762backed Yes	5c	789.7$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	8c	770.16$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	3c	757.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	2c	755.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	10c	699.97$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event