Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b3f3b93dc807cf9afa7924b1d22f456588323873e4429f8a1b311944023847

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,919,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,405,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,919,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 834 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	17c	94,650$16,490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,489.7	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd25d…f33bbacked Yes	0c	49,970$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.97	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x690c…83b5backed Yes	0c	37,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	15c	27,592$4,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,117.81	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ed…e29fbacked Yes	0c	25,418$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	19c	24,122$4,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,573.88	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	17c	23,441$4,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,077.1	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c28…7d1fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	69c	19,414$13,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,089.38	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	17,715$1,756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,755.6	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	19c	17,552$3,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,354.72	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	30c	16,972$5,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,110.33	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	14c	16,282$2,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,201.72	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	21c	16,059$3,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,382.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	33c	14,695$4,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,784.18	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62c6…499bbacked Yes	20c	14,523$2,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,865.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	13,448$2,966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,965.57	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	6c	12,900$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.15	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	13c	11,637$1,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,512.52	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e24…67d0backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	1c	10,578$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.91	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	33c	10,235$3,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,404.75	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ca6…6fa8backed Yes	0c	10,025$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…68c3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	10,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed Yes	24c	9,441$2,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,280.23	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed No	71c	9,428$6,719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,708.27	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	17c	9,301$1,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.23	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	7,444$5,802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,642.28	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	72c	7,290$5,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,071.24	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	23c	7,145$1,672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,672.19	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	9c	7,000$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.15	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	6,887$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	13c	6,869$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.09	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e8…87abbacked Yes	41c	6,677$2,710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,710.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,403$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.68	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	6,301$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.96	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	64c	6,021$3,848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,173.03	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	15c	6,000$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885.09	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed No	69c	5,798$3,985 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,813.39	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	11c	5,753$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	59c	5,101$3,030 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,071.25	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	16c	5,029$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.91	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	12c	4,865$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.65	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	20c	4,723$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$925.05	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	23c	4,642$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,053	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	1c	4,544$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	5c	4,427$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.06	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,421$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.23	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	12c	4,410$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.07	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4e…233ebacked No	70c	4,351$3,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,326.18	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No	78c	4,314$3,379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$934.55	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-16.1wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	4,307$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.19	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	20c	4,299$875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$874.79	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	12c	4,192$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.16	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	19c	4,133$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4db6…eb6cbacked Yes	15c	4,030$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	25cpaid	-90%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	14c	3,813$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.7	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	10c	3,796$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.38	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	3,667$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.82	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	7c	3,667$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.06	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	79c	3,636$2,881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$755.27	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	24c	3,573$859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.09	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes	11c	3,471$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.62	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	+38%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	63c	3,446$2,181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,265.05	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf952…ab43backed Yes	8c	3,327$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	16c	3,219$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.94	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	3,218$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.25	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	14c	3,178$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.49	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…b5c3backed Yes	19c	3,137$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	3,119$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.46	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No	74c	3,064$2,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$793.05	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	16c	3,047$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Yes	10c	2,939$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.62	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	34c	2,805$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.12	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	18c	2,784$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.42	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	35c	2,720$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.14	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	13c	2,710$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.74	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x811e…265cbacked Yes	34c	2,680$921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$921.3	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	17c	2,668$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.97	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	29c	2,666$764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.9	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No	79c	2,640$2,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.74	29	75.9%22 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes	18c	2,618$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,521$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked Yes	40c	2,498$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.51	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	27c	2,458$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.39	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x856b…d53cbacked Yes	17c	2,417$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	24cpaid	+15%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x965f…50debacked Yes	3c	2,404$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.55	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	6c	2,389$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	13c	2,377$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.3	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf95…00ccbacked Yes	4c	2,235$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.33	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,232$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.56	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	14c	2,222$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.08	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	2,206$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	2,191$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.13	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes	13c	2,167$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.29	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	12c	2,126$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.63	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0f…71fbbacked Yes	16c	2,075$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.49	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	8c	2,050$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.12	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event