Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4afd87e72eec89c2f8679acb5c299ed8569aa90ee90f7c9ae354a68580f6a8

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,267,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,525,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,267,416 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 585 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9583…bd4dbacked Yes	0c	150,329$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…499bbacked Yes	0c	57,705$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.07	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fd…a332backed Yes	0c	37,507$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes	0c	35,831$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	32,000$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf05a…1049backed Yes	1c	30,623$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-38%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	29,907$2,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,451.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	19c	22,784$4,353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,352.55	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	5c	20,864$1,079 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,079.11	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	11c	20,559$2,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,219.13	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee9…c77ebacked Yes	0c	20,063$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50ea…03b7backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3d…7162backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	7c	19,714$1,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441.55	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	18,273$2,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,448.71	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	17,859$2,966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,965.85	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	4c	16,027$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	8c	15,893$1,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,305.21	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7587…81e2backed Yes	0c	13,200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	12c	12,473$1,508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,508.2	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	12,421$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.73	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	12,409$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes	2c	12,352$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.43	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	0c	12,200$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	11,964$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc029…0533backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…76fbbacked Yes	0c	10,968$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	10,901$2,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,279.84	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	10c	10,877$1,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.21	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	1c	10,428$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.28	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…4d40backed Yes	1c	10,387$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.54	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed Yes	1c	10,030$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf37…2454backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+81%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	96	26%25 W · 71 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x940e…0e95backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	10,000$1,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,398	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	96	26%25 W · 71 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd32…6e2ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	3c	9,732$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.97	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	13c	9,693$1,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220.87	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	9,404$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4430…215ebacked Yes	1c	9,392$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,970$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	8,601$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.26	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	8,433$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c2…db4cbacked Yes	0c	8,019$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	20c	7,959$1,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	1c	7,745$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.72	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc5…b83abacked Yes	3c	7,414$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.05	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	7,222$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.08	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	14c	7,144$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	6,534$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	6c	6,399$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.99	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	11c	6,190$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.77	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	24c	6,014$1,416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,415.95	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	5,958$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.57	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd5…41f2backed Yes	1c	5,708$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.55	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	11cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	15c	5,247$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.18	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	5,100$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.19	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	8c	5,057$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.02	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93e8…c88bbacked Yes	14c	4,743$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.92	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	1c	4,734$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	5c	4,690$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.21	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Yes	1c	4,658$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.01	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	29c	4,503$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.12	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	9c	4,489$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.61	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	24c	4,393$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058.21	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	1c	4,318$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	7c	3,971$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.74	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce15…bf9dbacked Yes	4c	3,909$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.92	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	3,822$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.17	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	15c	3,802$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.88	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	26c	3,725$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954.38	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	3,675$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	18c	3,548$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.02	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	4c	3,542$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.23	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	2c	3,422$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8815…438dbacked Yes	1c	3,416$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc927…1656backed Yes	1c	3,224$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba88…ec75backed Yes	2c	3,157$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.05	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes	0c	3,133$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0f…71fbbacked Yes	25c	3,125$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.1	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	8c	3,100$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.41	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	7c	3,099$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.24	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	10c	3,021$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.38	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc044…de04backed Yes	1c	3,005$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.83	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1fb…c3c8backed Yes	4c	2,929$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.68	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	21c	2,887$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.72	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	1c	2,816$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes	1c	2,730$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f24…2277backed Yes	4c	2,692$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dec…3302backed Yes	0c	2,610$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	2,602$2,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.95	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	18c	2,587$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.04	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	12c	2,558$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.78	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2537…78c5backed Yes	2c	2,538$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.71	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event