TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xba88…ec75

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tennis, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 56 out of 100; worst Music at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.49
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.62
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.63
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.96
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.17
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.4
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.89
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.03
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+81.8%+$19.9
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+108.3%+$39.36
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$18.44
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$22.51
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+96.1%+$16.79
Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$28.02
Spread: Magic (-8.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$27.28
Bulls vs. Netsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$67.6
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+88.2%+$16.22
Spread: Heat (-10.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$32.35
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$10.24
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+93.9%+$43.84
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+112.8%+$16.49
76ers vs. Sunsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+121.7%+$20.4
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+114.7%+$18.23
Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$21.08
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+73.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+82.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+240%+$134.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$68.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+93.1%+$9.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+78.5%+$235.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+74.5%+$137.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$16.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$52.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.