Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2451814adfbe60fda063fd72442fe42ff83d605f97cc158a0a1c800caef55a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 21c | 1,791$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 15c | 807.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Yes | 3c | 752.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 60c | 648.54$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 66c | 600$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…10afbacked No | 58c | 550$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed Yes | 16c | 353.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…de8bbacked Yes | 21c | 314.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 30c | 286.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 71c | 270$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 267.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed Yes | 16c | 265.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 253.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba5…7df2backed No | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 30c | 150.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 45c | 138.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 22c | 127.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 116.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…d67bbacked No | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…ec75backed No | 79c | 79.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…16ccbacked No | 69c | 72.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…2817backed No | 70c | 50.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…bcc6backed No | 66c | 45.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…7910backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 42c | 39.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…c161backed Yes | 42c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…5b94backed No | 79c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…b12dbacked No | 78c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…be77backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…0482backed Yes | 74c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…37e9backed No | 79c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +148%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.