TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clippersof Rockets, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,390,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,408,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,390,866 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Clippers44c455,555$200,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255,110.7787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets56c300,594$168,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168,332.641,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets52c176,951$91,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,760.162,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cbf…6cf0backed Clippers48c169,777$80,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,884.02650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Rockets56c157,908$88,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,132.5729650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Rockets52c148,066$76,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,274.0732653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Rockets56c73,000$40,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,879.9640446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Clippers44c46,000$20,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,76048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Rockets53c45,101$23,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,773.1910252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets53c42,802$22,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,873.99,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Rockets52c40,000$20,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,80017250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Clippers45c36,192$16,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,019.811,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Clippers48c35,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,199.9927747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3022…3794backed Clippers48c34,107$16,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,661.822360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rockets52c27,429$14,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,307.911,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4aa…aa39backed Clippers48c23,230$11,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,087.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers46c22,635$10,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,219.832,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3340…4805backed Rockets53c22,438$11,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,892.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ec…47bdbacked Rockets52c22,083$11,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,487.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ce…6851backed Clippers47c21,361$10,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,321.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Clippers48c20,368$9,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,569.564,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Clippers48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Rockets50c16,842$8,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4217638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a98…8e06backed Clippers49c16,301$7,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,394.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Clippers49c15,094$7,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,697.8440350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Clippers46c13,680$6,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,359.0928643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Clippers48c13,467$6,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,002.846860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Clippers50c13,175$6,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,587.2956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets46c12,987$5,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,988.044,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Clippers48c12,517$5,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,524.4642648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Rockets56c12,500$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00017454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Clippers48c10,875$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,65525049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079e…8254backed Clippers51c10,800$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,275.335750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Clippers44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Clippers48c9,923$4,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,137.991,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Clippers48c9,624$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,004.4917550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Rockets55c9,194$5,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,073.8937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Clippers51c8,955$4,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.4946145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed Rockets53c8,682$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6005550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Clippers53c8,278$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,889.933,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6756…39f0backed Clippers50c8,187$4,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,134.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Clippers48c7,546$3,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,894.936351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rockets52c7,119$3,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,701.781,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Clippers45c6,556$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.5665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Rockets52c6,500$3,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,38058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Clippers46c6,440$2,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,486.3643348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c26…69c2backed Rockets48c6,376$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8f…2999backed Clippers52c6,376$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.41650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Clippers48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.3311351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Clippers49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.046838.2%26 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Clippers48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Clippers48c4,904$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.8224450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Clippers46c4,868$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.2629245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Clippers49c4,687$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.0738946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Clippers48c4,372$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.781,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Clippers48c4,110$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.215450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafdc…c2a2backed Clippers48c3,898$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.922161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Clippers48c3,773$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.7912950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Clippers44c3,606$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.3620355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Rockets56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006357.1%36 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Clippers43c3,305$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.6531644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Rockets4c3,200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322623.1%6 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.17per pick6cpaid+428%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets53c3,128$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.684,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Clippers48c3,046$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.8337747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Clippers52c3,000$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.2848957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets52c2,885$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.991,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Clippers48c2,738$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.532150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Clippers48c2,708$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.3341649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Clippers49c2,653$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.2830446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Rockets46c2,639$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.5483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Clippers44c2,550$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42818553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Rockets49c2,441$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.281,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Rockets52c2,425$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.689050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Clippers35c2,291$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.2944052.5%231 W · 209 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…5c2fbacked Clippers48c2,202$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.0816254.3%88 W · 74 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Clippers48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3312051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rockets52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers47c1,880$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.536,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets53c1,704$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.452,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Clippers47c1,639$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.8126544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Clippers45c1,457$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.3114450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Rockets56c1,454$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.7566646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Clippers57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5140451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Clippers45c1,333$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets49c1,316$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.485,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89cf…5f47backed Rockets56c1,308$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7321729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clippers43c1,284$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.092,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Rockets52c1,100$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.9850653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb93d…f0c4backed Clippers49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.413076.7%23 W · 7 L+8.8wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+69.9%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Rockets49c1,005$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.571449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Rockets55c1,002$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.981,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…7300backed Rockets5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508540%34 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Clippers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50014245.1%64 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8348…de9fbacked Rockets2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Clippers51c999.94$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.9713355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Clippers58c980$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.2842335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Clippers47c961.68$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.753,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…9b74backed Clippers45c960.42$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.231752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Clippers68c953.55$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.591,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Clippers53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.450954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.