TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,931,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,522,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,931,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 9,373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes10c2,200,087$229,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229,902.163823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes0c1,930,998$4,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,490.517613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa7d1…b824backed Yes30c1,737,710$528,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528,807.280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x485a…21cbbacked Yes3c1,266,703$35,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,363.03147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-87.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c1,102,813$14,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,634.1843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd22…ad91backed No73c938,585$681,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256,678.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes24c870,649$204,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,627.52218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad4…acd7backed Yes39c817,997$317,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317,768.39560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+73.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes22c771,986$170,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170,344.4813823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes6c712,248$43,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,225.116125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No70c658,698$464,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194,341.91560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c638,168$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.688817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa253…c48fbacked Yes26c613,367$160,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160,826.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc96…b2a7backed Yes30c500,239$151,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d1…f57ebacked Yes2c497,238$9,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,381.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes9c494,067$45,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,834.2810528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No79c382,139$300,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,427.657542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa51…bed9backed Yes2c366,027$8,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,849.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No62c331,792$205,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,444.78944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No72c289,484$209,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,405.0651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes9c288,448$26,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,261.733537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-25.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes5c278,330$12,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,595.332850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes15c253,389$37,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,874.2415232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8489…c184backed Yes28c246,024$69,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,948.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No57c245,479$140,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,285.215230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes5c243,422$11,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,732.61400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed No69c236,902$163,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,962.592917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No68c231,734$156,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,110.64156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e2…34fbbacked No75c230,470$173,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,379.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49eb…cf37backed Yes7c228,817$17,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,144.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No61c224,657$137,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,063.193933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c209,375$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No76c209,320$158,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,839.911844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a7…7674backed No78c201,774$157,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,259.09683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9697…8e9abacked Yes1c201,733$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,325.0540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed Yes18c201,000$35,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,6401030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No67c196,233$132,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,806.625650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes2c189,787$4,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,646.121181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+63.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes0c188,304$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7152138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No71c186,936$132,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,374.855954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No69c171,883$118,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,636.445745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x768c…015dbacked Yes27c165,600$44,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,560.92742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+123.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes4c162,061$6,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,038.05392.6%1 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-92.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…433abacked Yes38c157,074$59,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,688.721428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes36c152,570$54,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,607.654337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad71…e051backed No72c150,005$108,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,001.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No61c149,999$91,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,789.561050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes3c148,562$4,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,129.0135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No68c143,711$98,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,531.887946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes9c143,620$13,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,163.6411527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c75…6094backed Yes1c136,884$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+271.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c133,484$12,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,873.8842120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes29c133,091$38,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,662.712634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No59c131,397$77,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,052.36532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes0c129,405$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes1c123,266$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.33531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes17c120,804$21,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,023.712437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…d050backed Yes31c120,739$37,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,0003033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes22c120,595$26,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,795.441216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No69c117,871$81,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,571.2835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x642e…c03bbacked Yes34c117,645$39,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,887.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes48c116,715$56,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,515.78922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes20c112,606$22,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,890.996633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0af0…d425backed No77c109,160$83,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,485.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No67c108,074$72,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,823.9219531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f17…519ebacked No77c107,206$82,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,038.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c106,455$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.924769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes7c103,498$7,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,599.0821521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c99,769$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.3512223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed Yes19c99,643$19,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,359.282035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes21c97,668$20,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,300.8510226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No73c96,756$70,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,963.2413738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ff…9a86backed Yes22c93,876$20,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,652.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes1c91,256$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.4522627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No64c90,000$58,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,959.5213850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…f684backed No71c89,605$63,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,985.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2f…d8c6backed No66c87,747$57,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,191.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes26c86,357$22,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,549.9812629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d9…2851backed Yes5c81,106$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No68c79,949$54,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,908.972352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe61…4665backed No75c78,834$58,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,042.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+62.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes1c77,992$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad19…a7adbacked Yes11c76,916$8,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,148.261040%4 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+63.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed No64c76,672$48,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,749.71662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes29c75,240$21,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,913.493915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e5b…d168backed Yes1c75,223$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes12c75,132$9,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,333.7710335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes44c74,147$32,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,4311338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1caa…46a0backed Yes28c72,364$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0001030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b56…715ebacked No78c72,200$56,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,693.962263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No71c71,653$51,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,610.262268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf737…3a5bbacked Yes14c71,429$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes31c71,158$21,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,946.21741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes1c70,828$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8510333%34 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…cb2abacked No68c70,515$47,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,733.321060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+110.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes8c70,055$5,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,848.6144224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No60c69,952$42,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,676.835836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c68,768$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.943103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes6c67,305$3,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,991.618838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db6…dfd0backed Yes32c66,540$20,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,990.03650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+99.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.