Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9352c559e9648ab4cab236087b64ca85c5b7123a4c7d9d7d4efde4a39c18056f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,931,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,522,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,931,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 9,373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,200,087$229,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229,902.16 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 0c | 1,930,998$4,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,490.51 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…b824backed Yes | 30c | 1,737,710$528,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528,807.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,266,703$35,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,363.03 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,102,813$14,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,634.18 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 73c | 938,585$681,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256,678.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 24c | 870,649$204,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204,627.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad4…acd7backed Yes | 39c | 817,997$317,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317,768.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 22c | 771,986$170,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170,344.48 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 6c | 712,248$43,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,225.1 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 70c | 658,698$464,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194,341.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 638,168$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.68 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…c48fbacked Yes | 26c | 613,367$160,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160,826.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…b2a7backed Yes | 30c | 500,239$151,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…f57ebacked Yes | 2c | 497,238$9,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,381.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 9c | 494,067$45,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,834.28 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 79c | 382,139$300,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,427.65 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…bed9backed Yes | 2c | 366,027$8,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,849.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 62c | 331,792$205,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,444.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 289,484$209,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,405.06 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 9c | 288,448$26,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,261.73 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 5c | 278,330$12,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,595.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 253,389$37,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,874.24 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…c184backed Yes | 28c | 246,024$69,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,948.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 57c | 245,479$140,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105,285.2 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 5c | 243,422$11,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,732.61 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 69c | 236,902$163,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,962.59 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 68c | 231,734$156,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,110.6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…34fbbacked No | 75c | 230,470$173,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,379.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…cf37backed Yes | 7c | 228,817$17,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,144.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 61c | 224,657$137,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,063.19 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 209,375$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 76c | 209,320$158,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,839.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed No | 78c | 201,774$157,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,259.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9697…8e9abacked Yes | 1c | 201,733$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed Yes | 18c | 201,000$35,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,640 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 67c | 196,233$132,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,806.62 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 2c | 189,787$4,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,646.12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes | 0c | 188,304$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 71c | 186,936$132,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,374.85 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 69c | 171,883$118,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,636.44 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…015dbacked Yes | 27c | 165,600$44,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,560.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 4c | 162,061$6,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,038.05 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 38c | 157,074$59,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,688.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 36c | 152,570$54,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,607.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…e051backed No | 72c | 150,005$108,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,001.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 61c | 149,999$91,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,789.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 3c | 148,562$4,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,129.01 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 68c | 143,711$98,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,531.88 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 9c | 143,620$13,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,163.64 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…6094backed Yes | 1c | 136,884$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +271.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 133,484$12,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,873.88 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 29c | 133,091$38,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,662.7 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 59c | 131,397$77,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,052.3 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes | 0c | 129,405$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 1c | 123,266$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.3 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 17c | 120,804$21,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,023.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 31c | 120,739$37,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,000 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 22c | 120,595$26,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,795.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 69c | 117,871$81,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,571.28 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…c03bbacked Yes | 34c | 117,645$39,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,887.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes | 48c | 116,715$56,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,515.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 20c | 112,606$22,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,890.99 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…d425backed No | 77c | 109,160$83,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,485.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 67c | 108,074$72,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,823.92 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 77c | 107,206$82,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,038.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 106,455$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 103,498$7,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,599.08 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 99,769$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.35 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed Yes | 19c | 99,643$19,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,359.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 21c | 97,668$20,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,300.85 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 73c | 96,756$70,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,963.24 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9a86backed Yes | 22c | 93,876$20,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,652.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 1c | 91,256$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.45 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 64c | 90,000$58,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,959.52 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…f684backed No | 71c | 89,605$63,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,985.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…d8c6backed No | 66c | 87,747$57,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,191.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 26c | 86,357$22,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,549.98 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d9…2851backed Yes | 5c | 81,106$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,306 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No | 68c | 79,949$54,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,908.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed No | 75c | 78,834$58,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,042.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 1c | 77,992$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad19…a7adbacked Yes | 11c | 76,916$8,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,148.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed No | 64c | 76,672$48,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,749.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 29c | 75,240$21,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,913.49 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…d168backed Yes | 1c | 75,223$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 12c | 75,132$9,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,333.77 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 44c | 74,147$32,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,431 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 28c | 72,364$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 78c | 72,200$56,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,693.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 71c | 71,653$51,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,610.26 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…3a5bbacked Yes | 14c | 71,429$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 31c | 71,158$21,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,946.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 1c | 70,828$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.85 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked No | 68c | 70,515$47,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,733.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 70,055$5,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,848.61 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 60c | 69,952$42,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,676.83 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 68,768$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.94 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 6c | 67,305$3,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,991.61 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…dfd0backed Yes | 32c | 66,540$20,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,990.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.