TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f9e…3a0e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$132,426Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$63,806.62
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,812Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,811.56
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,055.13
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$8,429Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,429.42
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$9,870Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,870.16
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,417Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$624.87
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,966Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,966
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,441Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,441
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,490
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,245Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$1,103.53
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$8,574Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$3,884.61
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$25.96
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,187
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,222
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,145
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$908Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$908
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$4,879Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$1,964.32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,633Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,633
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$86,263Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$54,078.45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$76,079Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$47,371.19
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23,469Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$12,358.81
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$64,065Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$27,035.31
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17,044Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+491%+$83,692.35
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,256Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+27%+$339.17
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$7,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$5,211.86
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$9,387Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+27%+$2,531.76
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.24
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$2,035.67
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$9,160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$3,750.71
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+136.3%+$532.88
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,160.66
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,894Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,893.9
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,864Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,864.26
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$5,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,300
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,059Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,059
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17,197.5
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$233.33
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,098Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$704.18
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+531.7%+$531.71
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$1,219.26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11,062Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$3,220.21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$125.49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,642Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,642
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,662Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,662.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23,360Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$6,481.62
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$45,861Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$16,154.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$9,614Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.5%+$5,621.32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$19.09
All 9 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$704Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+56.3%+$395.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,806Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,805.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,279.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.