Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f4f3632b4fbc10e7ba84009b5e582b7061a0f7d1df82cca29a02fbbdaf97186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $549,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2589…bb9cbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 41c | 28,110$11,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,517.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 57c | 20,838$11,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,814.39 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 33c | 15,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,050 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 12,649$8,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,276.49 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 68c | 12,230$8,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,855.48 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 43c | 11,667$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,666.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 79c | 9,556$7,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.61 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed No | 11c | 6,411$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 66c | 6,079$3,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.07 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 52c | 6,010$3,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.6 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 1c | 5,850$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 35c | 5,227$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.56 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 73c | 4,600$3,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.78 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 66c | 4,517$2,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.33 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 59c | 4,370$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.76 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4610backed Yes | 46c | 4,329$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 40c | 3,805$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.76 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 22c | 3,567$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.78 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 3,564$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.1 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 51c | 3,457$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.21 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 38c | 3,305$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.3 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 32c | 3,154$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.82 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 28c | 3,112$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.3 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 78c | 3,031$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.62 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 3c | 2,950$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 69c | 2,671$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.58 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 61c | 2,417$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.77 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 41c | 2,329$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.72 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 49c | 2,199$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 43c | 2,195$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.6 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,926$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.83 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes | 59c | 1,707$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 32c | 1,670$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.8 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,611$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.23 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 11c | 1,561$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.57 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed No | 46c | 1,495$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…d959backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.59 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 79c | 1,427$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.05 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 20c | 1,425$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.85 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 1,365$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.39 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 44c | 1,316$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 58c | 1,311$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 51c | 1,298$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.19 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 22c | 1,270$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.1 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,110$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.05 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 1,035$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 1,012$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 11c | 978$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 967.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 10c | 948.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked No | 15c | 947.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…3af9backed Yes | 72c | 940$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 59c | 798.36$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.18 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 733.07$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.34 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 43c | 706.62$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.1 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 685$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.67 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked Yes | 61c | 658.14$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.31 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…d60dbacked No | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…4847backed Yes | 34c | 594.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.91 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 58c | 562.55$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.24 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 4c | 543.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 55c | 541.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 11c | 500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 47c | 494.09$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.2 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 78c | 472.02$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 24c | 442.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked No | 12c | 441.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 16c | 410.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 55c | 405$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 35c | 392.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 383.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed Yes | 62c | 360.03$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 72c | 329.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…7459backed Yes | 37c | 315$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 19c | 303.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118e…49bcbacked Yes | 33c | 302.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 72c | 290$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 67c | 285$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 279.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 24c | 279$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes | 67c | 254$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 69c | 239.37$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 10c | 231$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 64c | 209.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked No | 5c | 204.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…c26bbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 18c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 77c | 197.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d3…00a7backed No | 47c | 196.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 20c | 194.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 68c | 187.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.