Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f73273196e2eb5312a51109d5e774651694894eb7dd6be178515a07e84ffa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 2c | 25,970$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 62c | 15,961$9,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,870.16 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 33c | 9,760$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,556.58 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 52c | 8,250$4,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,931.72 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 7,660$3,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,096.17 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 62c | 5,380$3,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,336.47 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 6c | 5,069$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 29c | 4,382$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.68 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 64c | 3,845$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.42 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 79c | 3,649$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.75 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked No | 67c | 3,648$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 72c | 3,392$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.81 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 72c | 2,465$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 2,326$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.5 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 38c | 2,138$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.35 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 16c | 2,011$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.89 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,987$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.48 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,926$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.88 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 74c | 1,841$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.27 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…d959backed Yes | 48c | 1,830$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 28c | 1,829$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.7 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 1,786$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.22 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 28c | 1,723$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.13 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 1,664$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.46 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 28c | 1,645$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.93 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…5637backed Yes | 45c | 1,616$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 42c | 1,613$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 32c | 1,600$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.98 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 31c | 1,539$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.14 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 31c | 1,473$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.33 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 13c | 1,460$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 1,371$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.63 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 57c | 1,324$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.37 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 55c | 1,280$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.88 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 64c | 1,262$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 29c | 1,200$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.61 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 1,190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 66c | 1,010$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 50c | 950.99$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.34 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 33c | 924$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.97 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 66c | 911.25$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.56 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 46c | 900.29$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.85 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 859.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Yes | 61c | 822.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.53 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 38c | 806.48$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 28c | 795.96$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 72c | 722.14$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…d3efbacked Yes | 64c | 704.88$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.34 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 46c | 702.03$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 30c | 699.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 68c | 686.62$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.85 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 48c | 651.5$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.96 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 37c | 621.83$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 65c | 618.22$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 59c | 611.56$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 552.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 49c | 514.83$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.67 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…828abacked Yes | 40c | 502.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.03 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 60c | 500$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 69c | 495.97$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 468.91$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 18c | 450$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 24c | 441.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 67c | 441$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.47 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 424.17$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.19 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1243backed Yes | 24c | 407.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Yes | 31c | 400$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 68c | 400$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…a2f1backed Yes | 79c | 367.06$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 16c | 357$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 43c | 347.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…b7afbacked No | 33c | 316.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 20cpaid | +280.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 50c | 310$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…7c06backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed No | 33c | 299.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 283.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 35c | 271.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.87 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…ceccbacked Yes | 31c | 270$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 51c | 265$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 245.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 71c | 240$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 71c | 238.38$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.25 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…8d22backed Yes | 31c | 236.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 231.27$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…b6c4backed Yes | 45c | 229.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 47c | 216.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…c5f0backed Yes | 65c | 205$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 200.07$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…26eabacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.