Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc2ddb048f5aa3a5f05f07c480591d7a41c546387588a6345627144171f9670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $561,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $629,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 20c | 102,260$19,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,283.94 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 78c | 78,971$61,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,622.5 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 14c | 15,730$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.38 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 79c | 10,715$8,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,429.42 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 75c | 8,957$6,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 15c | 7,070$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,994.64 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 61c | 5,242$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.28 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 71c | 5,211$3,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.99 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked Yes | 52c | 5,094$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 57c | 4,399$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.16 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 5c | 4,150$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 53c | 3,862$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 23c | 3,818$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.06 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 28c | 3,589$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.16 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 26c | 3,574$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.89 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 3,176$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.23 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 13c | 2,971$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 16c | 2,562$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.96 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 18c | 2,305$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.01 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 30c | 2,281$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.54 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…9120backed Yes | 14c | 2,155$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 18c | 1,963$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.94 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 1,915$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.81 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 64c | 1,870$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,843$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.86 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.76 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 51c | 1,799$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.72 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 37c | 1,776$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.09 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 80c | 1,688$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…c5f0backed Yes | 28c | 1,684$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.68 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,650$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 80c | 1,629$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.26 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,485$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 49c | 1,407$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.8 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 75c | 1,374$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.83 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,313$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.28 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 1,199$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 1,186$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.95 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed Yes | 74c | 1,156$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.85 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 45c | 1,144$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.54 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 66c | 1,130$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.4 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 20c | 1,111$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 1,110$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.78 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 67c | 1,098$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.86 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 45c | 1,071$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.68 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 70c | 1,042$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 1,023$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.05 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 24c | 1,003$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.15 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked No | 1c | 1,001$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed No | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 13c | 1,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 55c | 978.42$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 64c | 961.2$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.17 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 48c | 879$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.68 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 23c | 862.71$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.24 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 27c | 852.86$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1986backed Yes | 18c | 839.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +255.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 808.68$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.59 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 24c | 800.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 43c | 700.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 684.59$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.92 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 20c | 682.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.37 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 18c | 650.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 69c | 621.03$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.55 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 70c | 614.77$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.01 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 48c | 570.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.23 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 27c | 544$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.67 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed No | 6c | 499.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 68c | 496.76$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…7fb5backed Yes | 76c | 495.79$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Yes | 25c | 495$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 63c | 491.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 21c | 486.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.48 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 73c | 457.65$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.08 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 71c | 455.94$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 25c | 454.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…7e04backed Yes | 29c | 450$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.32per pick | 15cpaid | +186%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 25c | 415.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 25c | 415$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.36 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…3230backed Yes | 21c | 410.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed No | 71c | 400$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…d714backed Yes | 20c | 394$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…4345backed No | 76c | 350.98$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 45c | 342$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 40c | 342$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…eb2bbacked No | 74c | 340$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 47c | 328.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.78 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 44c | 327.08$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.08 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 11c | 322.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 56c | 320$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…866ebacked Yes | 63c | 319.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…3252backed Yes | 16c | 317.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 12cpaid | +404%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…d24cbacked No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 24c | 310$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.