TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$561,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$629,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes20c102,260$19,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,283.947032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No78c78,971$61,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,622.537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No14c15,730$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.3848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No79c10,715$8,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,429.425650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed Yes75c8,957$6,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.253050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes15c7,070$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,994.6416526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes61c5,242$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.2816831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes71c5,211$3,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.9912944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…da6ebacked Yes52c5,094$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.192161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes57c4,399$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.1620143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No5c4,150$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.817948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No53c3,862$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes23c3,818$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.0610745.8%49 W · 58 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes28c3,589$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.1622627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes26c3,574$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.8914228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes65c3,176$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.2319739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5308230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes13c2,971$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.562123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+247.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No16c2,562$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.968719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No18c2,305$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0118531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes30c2,281$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.5413532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf289…9120backed Yes14c2,155$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.121050%5 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+210.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed No66c2,000$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3101442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9928734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No18c1,963$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.9451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes61c1,915$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.8121726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes64c1,870$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.66755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes15c1,843$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.8656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes11c1,800$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.768626.7%23 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No51c1,799$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.7235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x606e…6b3abacked Yes37c1,776$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.097576%57 W · 18 L+12.3wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+34.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No80c1,688$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3485954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207b…c5f0backed Yes28c1,684$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.683234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked Yes28c1,650$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1887032.9%23 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes80c1,629$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.264143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes80c1,485$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.45850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes49c1,407$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.821525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No75c1,374$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.8331649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes16c1,313$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.2817018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No11c1,199$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3142311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No40c1,186$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.9558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a6…8b84backed Yes74c1,156$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.853070%21 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No45c1,144$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes66c1,130$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.428943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No20c1,111$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.28247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c1,110$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7818135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No67c1,098$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.8616061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No45c1,071$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.6813419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2974…9c23backed No70c1,042$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7313562.9%22 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes11c1,023$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.0512432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3241…2cc5backed Yes24c1,003$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.152373.9%17 W · 6 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+92.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcdae…c02ebacked No1c1,001$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.792321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd0…c562backed No8c1,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.692839.3%11 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick24cpaid+121.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No13c1,000$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13111323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes55c978.42$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.81944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb48b…04ebbacked No64c961.2$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.178357.8%48 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No48c879$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.6810737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes23c862.71$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.2415434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No27c852.86$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.024645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5519…1986backed Yes18c839.63$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.36450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+255.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No41c808.68$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.5936035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No24c800.26$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.065664.3%36 W · 20 L+13.2wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+85.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes43c700.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.611038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No63c684.59$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.9236626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ec…5f73backed Yes20c682.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.374136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No18c650.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1715234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No69c621.03$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.5514743.5%64 W · 83 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No70c614.77$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.0126756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No48c570.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2316131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes27c544$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.6719449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x932a…bd8cbacked Yes19c500$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4052725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes14c499.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.9949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed No6c499.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes68c496.76$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7817359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70f8…7fb5backed Yes76c495.79$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.392263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed Yes25c495$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.25922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No63c491.95$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0420438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes21c486.37$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.488939.3%35 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No73c457.65$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.0816739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes71c455.94$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.85736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes25c454.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.861553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x95fd…7e04backed Yes29c450$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.32per pick15cpaid+186%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes25c415.38$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.385950.8%30 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+39.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes25c415$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.362272.7%16 W · 6 L+6.2wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+50.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6574…3230backed Yes21c410.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+71.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed No71c400$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2829244.6%41 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66f…d714backed Yes20c394$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.21050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+107.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72f7…4345backed No76c350.98$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.76465.6%42 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No45c342$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.97241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked No40c342$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked No74c340$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.63943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed No47c328.9$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.786129.5%18 W · 43 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes44c327.08$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.086538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes11c322.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.662133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62a…a8ffbacked No56c320$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.43141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a0…866ebacked Yes63c319.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.985945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a7…3252backed Yes16c317.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick12cpaid+404%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20b3…d24cbacked No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked No24c310$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.42937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.