TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72f7…4345

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT6465.6%42 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$40.4
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.85
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.71
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$180.03
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.58
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$24.5
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+69.2%+$380.43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$858Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+105.6%+$905.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+83.6%+$312.38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.6%+$210.55
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.7
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.47
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+77.9%+$394.7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$280.99
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$23.29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+30%+$139.44
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$38.59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.67
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.84
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.18
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$79.45
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.01
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$480.63
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.91
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$187.2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$432.26
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$7.06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.19
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.48
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.08
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$10.68
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.48
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$13.31
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$68.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+100%+$25
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+88.7%+$22.17
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.75
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Group Alphabacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.