Middle East · resolved market
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a8757bf4ecee8ba364603c3195d63c37c4d2700b69f8e4c5f751850bc330c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $815,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $643,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 564 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 12c | 47,440$5,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,823.65 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 9c | 26,001$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…dd3dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed Yes | 7c | 20,946$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,240$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 8c | 16,095$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.87 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 13,033$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 12c | 12,689$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.35 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 68c | 12,412$8,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,931.67 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 12,370$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.94 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 12,337$9,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.64 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 20c | 9,603$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.55 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 18c | 9,375$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.73 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed Yes | 11c | 9,236$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 20c | 8,078$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.66 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 6c | 8,000$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.28 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 21c | 7,862$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 6,920$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.62 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 32c | 6,862$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.1 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 27c | 6,181$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.51 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…70cabacked Yes | 43c | 5,855$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 26c | 5,608$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.42 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 17c | 5,447$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.78 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9b…2b8fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,412$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 73c | 5,400$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.99 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 23c | 5,353$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42af…cd89backed Yes | 0c | 4,835$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 75c | 4,811$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.06 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 25c | 4,781$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.34 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 4c | 4,746$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 4,663$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 27c | 4,563$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 54c | 4,548$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 24c | 4,102$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.05 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 78c | 3,978$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.16 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,811$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,571$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 8c | 3,386$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.87 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 30c | 3,263$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,195$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…4bfdbacked Yes | 22c | 3,022$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 3,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 72c | 3,000$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…b675backed Yes | 7c | 2,968$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 23c | 2,967$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.52 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,962$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 1c | 2,956$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 2,908$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 2c | 2,750$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,741$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.31 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 2,718$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,712$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.59 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed Yes | 20c | 2,468$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Yes | 25c | 2,268$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,266$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 30c | 2,234$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.94 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 75c | 2,229$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…c940backed Yes | 2c | 2,176$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,169$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 2,155$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.31 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 6c | 2,108$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…4779backed Yes | 8c | 2,106$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 7c | 2,093$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,087$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.88 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 8c | 1,966$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.63 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 3c | 1,957$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,929$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.28 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0649…a47bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,876$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,838$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 8c | 1,830$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked No | 72c | 1,742$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 78c | 1,715$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.37 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 1,670$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 30c | 1,605$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.33 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…e34bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,548$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…13b9backed Yes | 15c | 1,529$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb128…cf58backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…b2b7backed Yes | 22c | 1,448$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 72c | 1,446$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…de98backed Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +471.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ae…5b63backed Yes | 9c | 1,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 66c | 1,400$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.02 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 72c | 1,384$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,329$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 73c | 1,329$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.71 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…8fd0backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 70c | 1,289$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.75 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…d9eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,279$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 67c | 1,269$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.53 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 32c | 1,253$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,251$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab83…e360backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,200$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 8c | 1,198$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…f4c3backed Yes | 13c | 1,169$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.