Middle East · resolved market
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d859e9b62672ab0e90238495c1799f37759f8a2e96b67e240ddbf679428e7c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,536,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,372,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,536,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 11c | 95,230$10,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,004.2 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 48,511$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350.21 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Yes | 0c | 44,444$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 2c | 42,652$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.31 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 16c | 29,226$4,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,623.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 18c | 24,630$4,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,528.09 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 4c | 23,942$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.99 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 12c | 21,862$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.52 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…7610backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 3c | 19,602$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.19 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 17,762$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.13 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Yes | 3c | 17,443$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.91 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 15c | 15,306$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.21 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 2c | 14,443$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 12,974$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 6c | 12,142$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.31 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 11,826$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.37 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 9c | 11,692$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 15c | 11,682$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.11 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 15c | 11,302$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa082…5e8fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…57bdbacked Yes | 14c | 10,352$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 13c | 8,835$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.44 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 15c | 8,690$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…72bebacked Yes | 3c | 7,496$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 18c | 7,389$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.52 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 2c | 7,336$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 17c | 7,210$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.59 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…b303backed Yes | 0c | 7,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 7,005$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 2c | 6,787$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 6,487$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.97 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…e97bbacked Yes | 10c | 6,292$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.06 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 78c | 6,153$4,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.42 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed Yes | 9c | 6,132$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 11c | 5,869$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 21c | 5,529$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.66 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 22c | 5,514$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 17c | 5,424$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,336$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.18 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 2c | 5,144$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…bee2backed Yes | 12c | 4,960$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed Yes | 11c | 4,592$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 40c | 4,541$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.21 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b8…6ddebacked Yes | 9c | 4,512$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +264.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 4c | 4,440$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,301$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 26c | 4,278$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.8 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2edfbacked No | 74c | 4,058$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 11c | 3,764$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,658$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 78c | 3,650$2,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.5 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 15c | 3,454$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.56 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 5c | 3,194$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,191$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…71b3backed Yes | 16c | 3,080$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab83…e360backed Yes | 14c | 2,865$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed Yes | 31c | 2,678$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 2,673$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,595$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,586$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 20c | 2,559$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,536$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,433$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 14c | 2,379$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,289$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.65 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 2,282$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.35 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 13c | 2,266$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.63 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…18fabacked Yes | 3c | 2,206$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 9c | 2,198$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,104$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 2,054$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…2b7fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,037$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.9 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 21c | 1,979$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.41 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 25c | 1,924$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.98 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…ccefbacked Yes | 24c | 1,896$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 1,855$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 3c | 1,851$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed Yes | 17c | 1,813$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…b4fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,804$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…7b07backed Yes | 16c | 1,772$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 69c | 1,746$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bb…bac5backed Yes | 1c | 1,737$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 13c | 1,713$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.97 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…f8b0backed Yes | 2c | 1,680$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,673$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…5011backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a8…b549backed Yes | 2c | 1,649$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 1,620$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 17c | 1,612$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.37 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecc…36ddbacked Yes | 14c | 1,535$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?this page
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.