Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21d7b32eb529ea455eddba3cf29bfa097112202cbdf5bf21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,291,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,390,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,291,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 17,262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,139,008$852,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287,003.84 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 4c | 955,752$40,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,430.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 9c | 929,881$84,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,320.25 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 635,193$14,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,432.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…101bbacked Yes | 0c | 551,707$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 51c | 351,026$179,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171,942.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 11c | 316,536$35,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,511.01 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 27c | 287,032$77,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,235.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 1c | 247,923$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.87 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 14c | 220,136$30,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,858.5 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 44c | 219,186$96,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,962.48 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…cabbbacked Yes | 43c | 205,555$89,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,286 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 197,150$7,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,885.98 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 5c | 194,284$9,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,865.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 48c | 181,802$88,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,011.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…34bfbacked Yes | 55c | 175,347$96,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,884.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 171,149$19,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,217.52 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 2c | 170,232$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.91 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 29c | 161,851$46,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,134.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 34c | 159,333$53,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,785.93 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 34c | 154,820$53,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,401.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 52c | 153,140$79,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,248.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 146,084$7,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,324.06 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 76c | 132,342$100,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,389.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…cf37backed Yes | 35c | 121,197$41,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,824.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 14c | 110,465$15,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,844.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 11c | 108,138$12,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,425.16 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed No | 47c | 105,799$50,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,793.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 45c | 101,487$45,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,775.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 1c | 97,468$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 96,776$39,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,038.51 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 51c | 96,623$49,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,634 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…e8aabacked No | 63c | 90,609$56,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,874.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…32e6backed Yes | 0c | 84,274$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 47c | 82,943$38,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,768.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 39c | 79,948$30,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,013.99 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 35c | 79,260$28,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,058.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked No | 68c | 75,879$51,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,522.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…5c91backed Yes | 48c | 73,884$35,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,549.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 48c | 72,085$34,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,515.63 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 49c | 70,910$34,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,073.45 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 44c | 70,408$31,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,147.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 69,508$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.75 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 76c | 67,912$51,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,354.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 50c | 67,842$33,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,905.16 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…f11dbacked Yes | 33c | 66,593$22,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,058.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 28c | 65,503$18,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,493.33 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 31c | 64,877$19,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,948.48 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 61c | 63,042$38,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,844.94 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…50cbbacked Yes | 7c | 60,000$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…448abacked Yes | 30c | 59,876$18,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,086.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 53c | 59,520$31,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,791.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 58,520$7,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,190.06 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed Yes | 48c | 58,409$28,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,247.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Yes | 53c | 54,745$29,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,029.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed No | 52c | 52,798$27,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,400.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 14c | 52,576$7,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,187.78 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 32c | 52,242$16,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,550.77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 2c | 51,704$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 55c | 50,897$28,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,763.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 59c | 50,873$29,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,803.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 34c | 50,714$17,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,265.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…ef1bbacked No | 54c | 50,044$26,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,226.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 47c | 50,000$23,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,488.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c1…384ebacked Yes | 1c | 49,874$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 61c | 48,550$29,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,047.17 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 31c | 47,795$14,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,839.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22d…79f2backed Yes | 13c | 46,040$5,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,950.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 0c | 46,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 47c | 45,677$21,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,057.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed Yes | 31c | 45,059$13,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,847.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 1c | 43,835$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…64acbacked Yes | 30c | 42,050$12,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,799.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 55c | 40,768$22,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,496.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 52c | 40,000$20,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,400 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 50c | 40,000$19,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,200 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +192%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 42c | 39,937$16,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,760.5 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 50c | 39,354$19,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,489.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed Yes | 48c | 38,833$18,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,639.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…8028backed Yes | 53c | 38,341$20,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,320.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc5…cc64backed Yes | 0c | 37,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 49c | 36,839$17,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,913.62 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 45c | 36,328$16,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,129.74 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…9ee5backed Yes | 41c | 35,996$14,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,649.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked Yes | 48c | 35,324$16,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,908.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 43c | 34,441$14,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,798.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 13c | 34,158$4,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,423.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 34,068$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.47 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 48c | 33,603$15,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,961.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc2…7999backed Yes | 45c | 33,000$14,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,729.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 33c | 32,775$10,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,723.68 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…0343backed No | 64c | 32,283$20,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,740.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed No | 60c | 31,519$18,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,626.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 31,260$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…a78ebacked Yes | 37c | 30,827$11,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,502 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 31c | 30,700$9,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,539.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed No | 59c | 29,645$17,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,233.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 55c | 29,265$16,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,197.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 22c | 29,005$6,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,384.74 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac90…5d06backed Yes | 58c | 28,768$16,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,753.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.