TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x56e7…7c0b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.52
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$167.26
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,549Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,549.47
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$51,557Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$16,354.24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.25
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,415Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+185.8%+$2,628.49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.91
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.34
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$9,209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+66.2%+$6,094.88
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Risticbacked Mia Ristic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurelbacked Gerard Campana Lee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$21.84
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlaukabacked Viola Turini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$22.4
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+94.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$7,019Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+135.2%+$9,492.52
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$105
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$946Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$945.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ilia Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Titansbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.