UFC · resolved market
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4fa0c7a11d55f2c3bcb5e13d94d10b0dced33d7f195748990be092b70952c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Justin Gaethjeof Justin Gaethje, Ilia Topuria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,986,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,227,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,986,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,046 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 1,090,000$216,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873,606.57 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 615,441$129,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485,760.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 249,999$197,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197,499.58 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…aa70backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 246,717$49,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197,373.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Justin Gaethje | 23c | 235,933$54,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181,280.65 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Ilia Topuria | 65c | 225,763$147,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147,410.9 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Justin Gaethje | 18c | 165,949$30,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,505.83 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 150,000$120,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120,000 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Justin Gaethje | 35c | 141,438$49,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,117.32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Ilia Topuria | 80c | 140,475$112,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,380.02 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 130,785$104,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,627.76 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 126,499$99,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,934.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 117,826$23,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,260.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 116,203$91,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,986.81 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e17…d3d8backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 102,161$20,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,534.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 100,000$21,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,999.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 100,000$21,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,999.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…93edbacked Ilia Topuria | 79c | 99,999$78,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,999.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…453ebacked Justin Gaethje | 20c | 94,566$18,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,652.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Justin Gaethje | 20c | 93,500$18,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,099.61 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cd…2f2cbacked Ilia Topuria | 80c | 90,000$72,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ilia Topuria | 79c | 81,770$64,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,924.31 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 81,763$65,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,303.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87b…3626backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 71,439$57,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,150.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…3cd4backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 65,000$52,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Justin Gaethje | 19c | 64,275$12,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,062.52 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…658ebacked Ilia Topuria | 79c | 63,090$49,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,840.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…15e1backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 62,500$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Ilia Topuria | 80c | 60,000$47,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,799.87 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 60,000$47,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,399.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 55,947$44,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,535.31 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Justin Gaethje | 19c | 53,759$10,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,544.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…2036backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 52,381$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,380.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Justin Gaethje | 19c | 51,138$9,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,472.25 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 50,825$10,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,535.21 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 50,000$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 50,000$39,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,499.82 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Justin Gaethje | 51c | 49,692$25,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,160.81 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…bfb5backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 49,045$10,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,535.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 48,702$9,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,818.39 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Justin Gaethje | 40c | 47,294$18,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,452.73 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ilia Topuria | 27c | 41,560$11,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,028.67 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…b8f1backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 38,338$30,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,670 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Justin Gaethje | 17c | 37,942$6,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,519.49 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…37cdbacked Justin Gaethje | 20c | 37,500$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 34,814$27,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,440 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 33,465$26,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,770.52 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…367ebacked Justin Gaethje | 20c | 33,156$6,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,681.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Justin Gaethje | 67c | 32,231$21,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,664.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Justin Gaethje | 19c | 30,314$5,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,501.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…fb6cbacked Justin Gaethje | 21c | 30,105$6,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,782.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 30,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 29,915$23,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,931.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Justin Gaethje | 69c | 26,895$18,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,432.77 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Ilia Topuria | 76c | 26,893$20,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Ilia Topuria | 26c | 25,817$6,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,664.34 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…d3febacked Justin Gaethje | 21c | 24,718$5,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,647.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Ilia Topuria | 73c | 24,000$17,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,439.95 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 23,810$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,809.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Justin Gaethje | 36c | 23,609$8,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,137.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Justin Gaethje | 19c | 23,031$4,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,655.42 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed Ilia Topuria | 44c | 22,933$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 22,552$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,041.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…e19bbacked Ilia Topuria | 80c | 21,250$17,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Ilia Topuria | 80c | 20,929$16,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,642.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a07…1d4dbacked Ilia Topuria | 71c | 20,049$14,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,217.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 20,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,800 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,999.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 20,000$15,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,799.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 20,000$15,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,899.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 20,000$15,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,799.64 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ilia Topuria | 41c | 19,395$7,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,932.35 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…9867backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 19,320$15,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,455.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd105…7b2cbacked Justin Gaethje | 21c | 18,892$3,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,978.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…7398backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 18,622$14,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,897.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 17,501$14,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000.8 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ilia Topuria | 28c | 16,342$4,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,541.24 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Justin Gaethje | 21c | 15,490$3,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,237.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Ilia Topuria | 74c | 15,163$11,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,289.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…bb53backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 15,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…1ef7backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 14,194$2,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,355.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…58dabacked Justin Gaethje | 21c | 13,033$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,358.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +215.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 12,669$10,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,134.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 12,664$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,984.43 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d1bfbacked Ilia Topuria | 26c | 12,582$3,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,209.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Justin Gaethje | 41c | 12,536$5,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,454.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 12,500$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…26f5backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 12,414$9,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,931.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Ilia Topuria | 80c | 12,250$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Ilia Topuria | 79c | 12,000$9,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,480 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Justin Gaethje | 25c | 11,923$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,923.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked Ilia Topuria | 79c | 11,901$9,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,460.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…bbb9backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 11,856$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,484.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…058fbacked Ilia Topuria | 79c | 11,723$9,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,261.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Justin Gaethje | 73c | 11,000$7,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Justin Gaethje | 20c | 10,853$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,652.75 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Justin Gaethje | 17c | 10,845$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,954.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bb…9adabacked Justin Gaethje | 21c | 10,755$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,454.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…df1ebacked Justin Gaethje | 21c | 10,643$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,407.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Ilia Topuria | 76c | 10,554$7,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,993.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.