UFC · resolved market
O/U 0.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815e113421458e9d7be15c294a9ad5e931a10c17d0b8e6c3dd6159684678fe11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 18c | 1,320$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 79c | 746.5$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Under | 32c | 688.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 13c | 409.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 71c | 401.03$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Under | 29c | 345$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…8dc0backed Under | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 70c | 270$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 51cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 66c | 184$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Over | 71c | 171.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Under | 15c | 167.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…4d73backed Under | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…2378backed Over | 75c | 149.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6067…55fcbacked Under | 35c | 143.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…14c0backed Under | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…c3f6backed Over | 78c | 128.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Under | 27c | 111.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…a97ebacked Under | 35c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6475…bfe7backed Under | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked Over | 73c | 95.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…0d41backed Under | 24c | 83.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…3e8ebacked Under | 33c | 76.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…8477backed Under | 24c | 62.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed Over | 68c | 59.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked Under | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…cd8bbacked Under | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…8d6ebacked Over | 78c | 47.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Over | 72c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…3a56backed Over | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 71c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 71c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 0.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.