UFC · resolved market
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x349b2302f841e740ceb18765350b622761252a770d99af7b37a7f2cfa222da60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 15c | 32,492$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,491.69 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bb…9adabacked Yes | 17c | 2,059$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb4…d892backed Yes | 16c | 1,958$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…9babbacked Yes | 16c | 1,605$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +114%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…3bd3backed Yes | 17c | 1,163$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +252.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…044dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Yes | 15c | 1,005$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5733…4c87backed Yes | 15c | 993.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…d0debacked Yes | 18c | 835.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a5…0639backed Yes | 15c | 788.93$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d93…4f26backed Yes | 16c | 737.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…1f6ebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…314cbacked Yes | 15c | 681.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.67 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…4b8fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +273.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d3…0a4dbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +200.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e31…b6ebbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…8709backed Yes | 32c | 623.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…c1c3backed Yes | 15c | 606.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…bf60backed Yes | 15c | 606.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0be…9164backed Yes | 16c | 557.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0ddabacked Yes | 19c | 527.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +285.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 16c | 475.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.39 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…46d2backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 72c | 420.24$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.35 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…67e8backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +214.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…6128backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…ab02backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…0716backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +450.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…8232backed Yes | 17c | 301.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +502.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Yes | 17c | 300.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.72 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes | 17c | 299.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…f4bfbacked Yes | 16c | 289.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…9b97backed Yes | 16c | 289$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 68c | 284.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee0d…1fc5backed Yes | 9c | 281.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +418.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 18c | 278.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.89 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a2…e82abacked Yes | 20c | 271.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf509…86dcbacked Yes | 15c | 230.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…3bf0backed Yes | 20c | 221.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…e42fbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +459.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…6877backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…65cebacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…8d54backed Yes | 14c | 211.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…7774backed Yes | 15c | 198.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…f042backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +302.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…65cdbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…e543backed Yes | 15c | 177.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +471.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86e…2234backed Yes | 15c | 176$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +337.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…41f4backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f00…2f63backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 8c | 166.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.38 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Yes | 21c | 160$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7446…e031backed Yes | 17c | 147.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…15e8backed Yes | 15c | 142.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +393.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…6103backed Yes | 16c | 133.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +160%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab0…495ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae0…a910backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…34c2backed Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…cbdabacked No | 9c | 128.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…984bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +450.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…e08abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…813cbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f6…5ef4backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9a…2d50backed Yes | 16c | 121.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ab9abacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…2cd2backed Yes | 17c | 117.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…717ebacked Yes | 18c | 114.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +470.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…2ab9backed Yes | 14c | 113.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…569fbacked Yes | 18c | 112.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +463.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…d012backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…c427backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +230.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6567…05fabacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…23f2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcac…1328backed Yes | 15c | 97.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…b11abacked Yes | 54c | 93.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b7…b827backed Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…bc65backed Yes | 17c | 84.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…4296backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…37ccbacked Yes | 23c | 76.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…83d6backed Yes | 16c | 71.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…2dc9backed Yes | 16c | 69.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +182.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda13…7877backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fb…1adcbacked Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…5093backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…af66backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb3…7f06backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…9ce0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f85…bd8cbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…9fc0backed Yes | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 61c | 45.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.