UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc33153ac81bba96b2ad9374bc4d20b67bb49690dba620f557f998b1983adedb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 25c | 11,714$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.47 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…12c3backed Yes | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 74c | 3,411$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.93 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked No | 23c | 1,879$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked Yes | 79c | 1,271$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.99 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 23c | 1,149$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.92 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 24c | 777.83$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 20c | 660.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 79c | 600$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…d67bbacked Yes | 76c | 592.48$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed No | 31c | 490.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…9206backed Yes | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60bc…1db3backed Yes | 80c | 376.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 71c | 302.86$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 13c | 273.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Yes | 74c | 268.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…08a8backed Yes | 76c | 260.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 18c | 232.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 13c | 216.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked No | 13c | 215.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 25cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 76c | 214.47$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 79c | 204.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 76c | 199.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…e2fabacked Yes | 74c | 157.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…9cdabacked No | 22c | 157.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…065abacked Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 144.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed Yes | 65c | 140.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…7992backed Yes | 76c | 132.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…6717backed Yes | 75c | 126.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfc…8b83backed Yes | 74c | 116.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…aaa3backed Yes | 74c | 115.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…7a58backed No | 13c | 96.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 93.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…83c9backed Yes | 75c | 82.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Yes | 74c | 82.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 19c | 74.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…fab2backed Yes | 79c | 70.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…a3e8backed Yes | 72c | 68.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…6d0ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fa…3139backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc162…40bbbacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…d5e9backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3591…ef9abacked Yes | 75c | 65.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 79c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…a135backed Yes | 75c | 63.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…dc0fbacked No | 30c | 61.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…974ebacked No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1994…b4e5backed Yes | 64c | 54.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…e55cbacked No | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…42fdbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9b…6e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…158fbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…6850backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…43f5backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…3862backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…b7ebbacked No | 25c | 40.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bce…49c1backed Yes | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…fad3backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…972fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…0d41backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 76c | 35.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…ded9backed Yes | 77c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…6562backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d20bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…3992backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…100ebacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…d2debacked Yes | 79c | 26.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…f21bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…1e8fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…e116backed Yes | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 84 | 77.4%65 W · 19 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…4ea6backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…6010backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85a…d28ebacked Yes | 77c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…a026backed Yes | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Yes | 72c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…2a6abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…147fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Yes | 75c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…729bbacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…62b3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.