UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f4fb8a098bdc7c976df78b58af74f18818e5a6b7908afb0ebba00246e84b43d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 55c | 3,487$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.44 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…b676backed Over | 45c | 3,347$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…12c3backed Under | 68c | 2,939$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 1c | 2,418$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 41c | 1,747$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.7 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Under | 69c | 1,518$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Over | 31c | 1,296$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 32c | 1,129$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.83 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 61c | 1,124$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.92 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…e3c9backed Under | 68c | 1,050$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…96e1backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed Under | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 42c | 679.93$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.06 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Under | 61c | 499.98$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Under | 60c | 463.48$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.09 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 68c | 455.88$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 67c | 397.34$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.22 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 57c | 336.88$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…e365backed Under | 68c | 323.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…bb5abacked Over | 36c | 281.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 39c | 257.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…4501backed Over | 35c | 215.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…2730backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Over | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 57c | 169.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…c3f4backed Under | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 40c | 149.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…f580backed Over | 30c | 110.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 72c | 105.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…bb86backed Over | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…9c4cbacked Over | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 67c | 92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…0c7bbacked Under | 68c | 87.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…14fcbacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…02f2backed Over | 43c | 70.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 33c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 21c | 66.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 59c | 62.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…b993backed Under | 75c | 60.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 63c | 60.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Under | 61c | 60.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Over | 42c | 59.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…0d41backed Under | 72c | 55.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…0291backed Over | 38c | 52.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…1535backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…b6febacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe249…3489backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 68c | 44.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b2…32babacked Under | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…96d8backed Over | 33c | 41.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…7199backed Over | 37c | 40.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Under | 67c | 40.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…5a3fbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8e…3c8bbacked Under | 61c | 39.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Under | 37c | 37.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…8924backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…03adbacked Under | 68c | 26.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9490…a16cbacked Over | 42c | 26.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…4526backed Under | 67c | 24.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Under | 54c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…86f8backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…563dbacked Under | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.