UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2bebc7fe9a34a3e92bb2c9a49b2322c828211418ae25b8398900f7337a28287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed Yes | 9c | 7,696$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.71 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 10c | 6,749$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.63 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,023$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.09 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Yes | 18c | 4,365$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Yes | 12c | 3,487$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.41 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…346bbacked Yes | 15c | 3,175$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Yes | 14c | 2,321$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.98 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…4831backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 1,452$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…9285backed Yes | 12c | 1,233$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,208$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 80c | 1,067$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.37 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,035$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…e567backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 800.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…7274backed No | 79c | 799.95$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…e9d4backed Yes | 13c | 791.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 15c | 746.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…cbbbbacked Yes | 5c | 723$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 80c | 720$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 25c | 702.35$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Yes | 12c | 684.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…b0ecbacked Yes | 15c | 678.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…e52ebacked Yes | 15c | 664.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…1cdbbacked Yes | 14c | 636.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…423abacked Yes | 41c | 611.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…02aebacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e7…6bc0backed Yes | 15c | 584.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…19e2backed Yes | 14c | 555.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cd…2eedbacked Yes | 12c | 525$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f0…fabbbacked Yes | 23c | 464.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 12c | 419.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…2c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…35ebbacked Yes | 12c | 388.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Yes | 21c | 381.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 40c | 371.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 369$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…d1b3backed Yes | 12c | 366.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…15eabacked Yes | 14c | 361.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Yes | 36c | 353.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 5c | 327.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…ec18backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…f48abacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…0d21backed Yes | 16c | 281.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 12c | 265.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf032…fd7ebacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…f7fdbacked Yes | 12c | 246.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…69acbacked Yes | 15c | 238.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…4731backed Yes | 17c | 234.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 24c | 226.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…2cd2backed Yes | 14c | 220.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0443backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…5f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…e8e3backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…dd67backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…ca9dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 29c | 195.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…4614backed Yes | 12c | 171.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +146%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…aab9backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…f0e5backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…bb21backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…e55cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 42c | 163.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…c28bbacked Yes | 16c | 156.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…5d98backed Yes | 15c | 154.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…3b22backed Yes | 15c | 154.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…ee19backed Yes | 13c | 150.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 135.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ab9abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…76e2backed No | 76c | 131.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Yes | 19c | 130.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…9c4cbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…bd5ebacked Yes | 24c | 121.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…c081backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…40bdbacked Yes | 17c | 115.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…68d3backed Yes | 27c | 111.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Yes | 32c | 108.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…5619backed Yes | 15c | 108.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…c74ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…79fbbacked Yes | 16c | 101.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed Yes | 26c | 93.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed1…cc38backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f3…ae3bbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…8395backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…05bebacked Yes | 15c | 68.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…5705backed Yes | 16c | 67.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +154%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.