UFC · resolved market
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5265c323155d7475f987ff8d68496095dff71dfd9a8c69f3720114cb5c27a057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 32c | 35,506$11,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,102.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 30c | 21,000$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,759.86 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 31c | 11,593$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,954.05 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…53b7backed No | 34c | 10,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,599.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…5a1abacked Yes | 71c | 7,722$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 32c | 5,933$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,041.58 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…c1a7backed Yes | 67c | 5,807$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,890.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 30c | 5,713$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.13 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…92d2backed Yes | 70c | 5,651$3,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 29c | 5,487$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,890.75 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Yes | 67c | 4,342$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.33 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Yes | 66c | 3,788$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 29c | 3,477$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.7 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…6583backed Yes | 71c | 3,142$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.58 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Yes | 70c | 2,829$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 31c | 2,812$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked No | 30c | 2,767$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.48 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 28c | 2,471$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.09 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…3540backed Yes | 71c | 2,091$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37b…dfa6backed Yes | 72c | 2,065$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 70c | 1,874$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.5 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 1,829$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.58 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 70c | 1,702$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 67c | 1,560$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.61 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked No | 32c | 1,541$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.96 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed Yes | 69c | 1,452$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7671…7244backed Yes | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Yes | 71c | 1,381$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.21 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 30c | 1,237$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.26 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…0962backed Yes | 74c | 1,218$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…fc38backed Yes | 68c | 1,176$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 30c | 1,132$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.98 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Yes | 68c | 1,125$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.98 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf3…e802backed Yes | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…e547backed Yes | 67c | 1,093$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 31c | 1,078$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.23 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…5119backed No | 32c | 1,066$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 30c | 1,055$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.36 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 27c | 1,049$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.53 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05eb…2273backed Yes | 69c | 1,043$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…6cf1backed Yes | 68c | 1,027$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 67c | 1,002$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.25 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 30c | 999.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.94 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…c64ebacked Yes | 71c | 975.86$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…dfb4backed Yes | 73c | 972.05$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…2cfbbacked Yes | 69c | 971.14$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed No | 32c | 939.04$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.52 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…fc3dbacked No | 29c | 937.6$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…41d7backed Yes | 71c | 925.24$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…3e8ebacked Yes | 69c | 924.41$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…be18backed Yes | 67c | 855.45$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe444…fa95backed Yes | 70c | 841$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…ad39backed Yes | 70c | 822.2$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…e9d4backed No | 31c | 810.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 68c | 799.94$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…ddf3backed Yes | 70c | 782.73$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Yes | 67c | 750$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 32c | 739.97$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 68c | 738.17$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.34 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…cf25backed No | 30c | 725.77$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 31c | 723$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…0a8bbacked Yes | 68c | 721.04$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf31…5abebacked Yes | 67c | 711.57$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…ace5backed Yes | 67c | 709.22$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 47c | 704.49$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.18 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed Yes | 72c | 698.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Yes | 69c | 669.82$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Yes | 47c | 639.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…c8d5backed Yes | 66c | 612.03$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 33c | 600.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.03 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Yes | 67c | 588.99$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Yes | 68c | 588.36$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…2832backed Yes | 68c | 585.21$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…fe8abacked Yes | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ca…3e70backed Yes | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…ec49backed Yes | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…0381backed Yes | 69c | 576.72$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 66c | 565.81$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.43 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed Yes | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Yes | 66c | 556.38$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…cb21backed Yes | 69c | 518.6$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…502bbacked Yes | 68c | 513.64$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 31c | 510$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…0057backed Yes | 68c | 500.48$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 31c | 500$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…a9d5backed Yes | 71c | 485.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 71c | 462.98$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.72 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 67c | 452.9$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88e…5e29backed Yes | 69c | 444.9$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…edadbacked Yes | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…0c7bbacked Yes | 69c | 433.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…7ce3backed Yes | 69c | 428.57$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d04…bcc0backed Yes | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.