UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4618503f975d4252e4a8393311c87f598738d3af1f6c126318abc76f14a8480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $329,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 54c | 60,000$32,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,599.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 52c | 32,227$16,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,329.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Under | 47c | 31,383$14,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,606.08 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 45c | 28,409$12,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,822.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 54c | 27,633$14,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,711.11 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 25,554$12,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,049.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 25,000$11,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,899.94 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…bb53backed Under | 46c | 18,935$8,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,710.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…2b59backed Over | 57c | 17,259$9,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,421.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…db28backed Under | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…600fbacked Under | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 51c | 12,301$6,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,050.25 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 47c | 10,597$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…da86backed Over | 52c | 9,653$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,653.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 55c | 9,091$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,090.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 8,830$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.8 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…0561backed Under | 48c | 8,718$4,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,141.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…49afbacked Over | 52c | 8,430$4,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,075.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 6,898$3,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,255.28 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed Over | 49c | 6,143$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 5,099$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.54 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Over | 53c | 5,031$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.2 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 56c | 4,692$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.12 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 48c | 4,060$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.84 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Over | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…b676backed Over | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 34c | 3,550$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc590…dd1ebacked Under | 46c | 3,225$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 48c | 3,150$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Under | 50c | 3,017$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…bd5ebacked Under | 2c | 2,982$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Over | 72c | 2,451$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.15 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 55c | 2,230$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.55 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…9557backed Under | 46c | 2,124$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 48c | 2,020$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…cb8fbacked Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Over | 55c | 2,000$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Over | 52c | 1,892$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Over | 54c | 1,876$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.86 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…4c12backed Over | 56c | 1,841$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…9797backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 46c | 1,522$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 46c | 1,494$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 39c | 1,376$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.39 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 46c | 1,330$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over | 52c | 1,330$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.9 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Under | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea0…8d74backed Over | 55c | 1,279$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…8622backed Under | 49c | 1,218$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 44c | 1,211$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.63 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 51c | 1,173$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Over | 52c | 1,135$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…f29dbacked Over | 51c | 1,125$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 51c | 1,100$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Under | 46c | 1,057$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 1c | 1,026$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 53c | 1,002$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.07 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…96e1backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…2378backed Under | 49c | 999.98$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 66c | 967.3$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.88 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…d472backed Over | 56c | 873.71$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Over | 71c | 844.57$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.57 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Over | 51c | 836.84$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.24 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a2f1backed Over | 55c | 777.4$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 48c | 764.25$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.36 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…6586backed Under | 48c | 723.28$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…3079backed Over | 50c | 710.68$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Under | 47c | 647.64$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…809fbacked Over | 54c | 559.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Over | 52c | 558.49$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.43 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Over | 55c | 543.64$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Under | 46c | 523.13$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a35…a978backed Over | 52c | 521.68$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…198fbacked Over | 58c | 515.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…078abacked Under | 49c | 513.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…36f4backed Under | 50c | 500.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…e365backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6759…95a7backed Under | 49c | 499.47$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…f60abacked Under | 50c | 494.35$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Over | 54c | 464.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.26 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…423abacked Over | 56c | 446.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d20…f96abacked Over | 55c | 445.45$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Under | 45c | 441.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Under | 45c | 439.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 53c | 439.38$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…0e8cbacked Over | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 47c | 419.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Under | 50c | 416.21$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…a9dabacked Under | 46c | 405.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…4865backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.