UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489b51f1984205a212d7ebc64727c6dd153c2b1631a7d0500fb37097f41d146b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 16c | 7,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Yes | 18c | 2,770$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 74c | 2,171$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.44 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,989$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…2e34backed Yes | 23c | 1,537$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 77c | 1,109$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…d6e3backed Yes | 18c | 724.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 25c | 604$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…bb53backed Yes | 16c | 556.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 76c | 469.58$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 67c | 453.43$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.21 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…b095backed Yes | 16c | 451.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 404.8$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…7267backed Yes | 17c | 353.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 76c | 342.87$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8542…9405backed Yes | 17c | 335.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…ad39backed Yes | 16c | 306.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…9917backed Yes | 23c | 304.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…e99ebacked Yes | 25c | 304.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…c511backed Yes | 17c | 301.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…6128backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7f…7d79backed Yes | 17c | 251.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 17c | 225.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 211.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…a318backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…1621backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…5479backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…cd8bbacked No | 80c | 111.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…e55bbacked Yes | 40c | 100.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…8e5dbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…6d66backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…6879backed Yes | 23c | 86.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…dd70backed Yes | 17c | 83.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…d243backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…c74ebacked Yes | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…4cd0backed Yes | 25c | 75.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…b947backed No | 75c | 68.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 63c | 67.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked Yes | 17c | 66.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 66.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…0c7bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…198ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…0505backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…0618backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…c1dbbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 75c | 52.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 77c | 49.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8f…006dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +209.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 77c | 37.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 78c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 77c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje won
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.