TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf9c7…5d22

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
194
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NHL, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 65 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kyoji Horiguchi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ion Cutelaba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Andre Fili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$566.67
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$800
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$316.67
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+99.3%+$496.4
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$187
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Michael Chandler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Kyle Daukaus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$138.52
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Belal Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$950
Will Belal Muhammad win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Edmen Shahbazyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Tom Nolan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$405.56
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Santiago Luna · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Junior Tafa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jordan Leavitt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Caranobacked Carano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perrybacked Diaz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melquizael Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Linsbacked Lins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$79
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT8445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
NHL — the 84 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+191.5%+$593.61
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+142.6%+$777.96
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+884.7%+$884.67
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$312
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.12
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$671.07
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.23
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$145
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.52
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+352.2%+$704.37
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$363.06
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.78
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens backed Habs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$932Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+134.9%+$1,257.55
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$312.24
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$247
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$634
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$443Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$443
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+135.7%+$474.83
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Showing 25 of 84 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.