TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rouseyof Rousey, Carano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$298,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$307,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,673 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d92…8676backed Carano17c50,127$8,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,471.423339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Carano8c24,478$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.0627448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Carano19c17,367$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.885632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3740…c005backed Carano18c9,000$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2b…3ababacked Carano18c7,015$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.17944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+99.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88eb…9394backed Carano18c5,514$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.911643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Carano1c5,347$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4714551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Carano17c5,345$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.112548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc001…59a3backed Carano20c5,220$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.84837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+49.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Carano19c4,760$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.381050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Carano2c4,750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Carano12c3,821$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.713951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Rousey79c3,396$2,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.712052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Rousey80c3,130$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.055775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd091…4715backed Carano21c3,118$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+131.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde54…473abacked Carano18c2,712$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Carano7c2,698$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.735950.8%30 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Carano21c2,436$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302d…693dbacked Carano4c2,356$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Carano14c2,327$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.3635848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742d…020dbacked Carano19c2,299$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Rousey80c2,291$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.046142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdccd…e3cfbacked Carano18c2,161$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+155%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Carano2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a9…1221backed Rousey80c2,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a7…829abacked Carano17c1,775$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+234.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Carano18c1,751$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.111414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc9b5…1a40backed Carano4c1,623$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Rousey78c1,515$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.752454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Carano20c1,509$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffe…8eddbacked Carano1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Carano18c1,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2734940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf05…9542backed Carano18c1,464$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b06…6c73backed Carano18c1,447$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d25…ba19backed Carano21c1,414$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Carano20c1,249$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.766443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24b5…a92cbacked Carano19c1,247$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Carano18c1,165$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.792458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7927…10fabacked Carano17c1,163$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.25650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ee…a64cbacked Carano27c1,087$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2941060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+84.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Carano19c1,064$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c13…f824backed Carano21c1,060$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac7…f8a0backed Carano19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd586…08e9backed Carano22c1,048$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Carano16c1,035$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd4…c87dbacked Carano1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Rousey80c1,000$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2036254.8%34 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Carano20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Carano19c999.97$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Carano20c988.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Carano20c978.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Rousey79c956.82$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8415933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Carano18c949.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.83847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Carano15c931.12$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6718032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bca…5c8dbacked Carano22c888.52$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.321136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7270…55acbacked Carano18c816.7$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…856dbacked Carano20c753.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.53425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Carano17c751.18$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x013c…7634backed Carano19c717.89$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe2…0d54backed Carano21c715.59$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa919…65fabacked Carano20c710.16$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Carano5c666.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Carano19c660$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.762321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Carano17c654.85$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.752128.6%6 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-55.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Carano20c635.07$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d6…b99bbacked Carano17c605.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Rousey80c599.99$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.414144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd782…9285backed Carano20c594.46$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb12…70a7backed Carano18c570.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Carano18c557.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44d…edf1backed Carano18c553.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb781…9ba9backed Carano18c550$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840c…162abacked Carano19c550$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067d…1ceebacked Carano18c549.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1529…0968backed Carano18c546.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7310…8d54backed Carano18c546.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…6b45backed Carano21c540.43$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4788…94ccbacked Carano18c534.04$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.73520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6def…0d85backed Carano19c529.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+119.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a43…c15dbacked Carano20c503$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8181…f5fbbacked Carano20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+122.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddfe…4c2ebacked Carano18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.991723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa199…b0e8backed Carano18c494.7$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f32…6cfbbacked Carano20c491.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd4…7546backed Carano21c485.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+72.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5f…480abacked Carano20c482.92$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.794736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc069…0807backed Carano21c479.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b5…68e1backed Carano21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+66.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Rousey79c474.46$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8738353.3%204 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x317d…e525backed Carano21c469.22$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Carano21c456.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Carano18c421.1$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764040%16 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5588…e508backed Carano20c412.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2534…3484backed Carano20c410.35$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+78.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Carano18c408.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755747.4%27 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fa…da93backed Carano18c405.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa928…bbaabacked Carano18c399.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+98.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3c0…c371backed Carano18c392.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.991040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aff…9bbfbacked Carano18c377.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…3b17backed Carano21c366.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.296953.6%37 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.