TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc2b5…68e1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: UFC, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 60 out of 100; worst Golf at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+66.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
UFC — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Caranobacked Carano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perrybacked Perry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+58.5%+$175.39
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Sean Brady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$68.11
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$227.78
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Joshua Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$75
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gilbert Burns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.22
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Charles Jourdain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$128.52
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Mandel Nallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.56
Will Carlos Ulberg win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+179.1%+$86.11
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Carlos Ulberg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$216.35
Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$148
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Joe Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$196
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+231.5%+$289.35
All 17 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Golf — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.5
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$40.48
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$63.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.12
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuelabacked Italy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.82
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$176.33
All 3 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$128.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,502.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.