TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Venezuelaof Italy, Venezuela
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$781,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $781,695 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Italy0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Italy34c118,980$41,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,002.575244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Venezuela63c61,536$38,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,768.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Italy37c50,188$18,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,645.931,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7754…9709backed Venezuela66c45,559$29,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,594.63425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Italy36c42,597$15,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,334.953150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Venezuela78c31,944$24,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,117.5831039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Italy0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Italy36c24,120$8,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,683.1411456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Italy44c18,827$8,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,288.1385135.8%305 W · 546 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Italy47c18,803$8,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,761.9615550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Venezuela66c17,207$11,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,920.1746239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Venezuela63c15,958$10,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,904.63740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Venezuela64c13,364$8,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.7514953%79 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Venezuela65c10,500$6,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6754573.3%33 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Venezuela63c10,448$6,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,897.0112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Italy0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106524.6%16 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Italy1c9,958$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.711136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Venezuela80c9,694$7,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.2516725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cb…58b4backed Italy39c9,245$3,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Italy35c8,094$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.821,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Venezuela60c7,753$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.2524551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ca…e96dbacked Italy0c7,206$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Venezuela63c7,058$4,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.982951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34b…6118backed Venezuela46c6,500$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,491.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca4e…f97ebacked Venezuela63c6,209$3,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.1911347.8%54 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Italy37c5,757$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.065149%25 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Venezuela43c4,983$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.5215840.5%64 W · 94 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…1d20backed Venezuela64c4,400$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e9…df05backed Italy37c4,054$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Venezuela64c3,906$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.2526245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe24f…bae5backed Italy17c3,811$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.191030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f1…86f8backed Venezuela64c3,714$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7573…8ceabacked Venezuela64c3,200$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked Venezuela64c3,085$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.551526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-56.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Italy35c3,000$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0351118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick44cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Italy36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9811040.9%45 W · 65 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…1db7backed Venezuela64c2,900$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Italy37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed Venezuela61c2,688$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.093357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Venezuela72c2,662$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.21963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed Venezuela62c2,642$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Italy57c2,616$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.533250%16 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Italy54c2,572$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.8823036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Venezuela64c2,451$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3620548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Venezuela65c2,353$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Italy37c2,333$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.211,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c5…01dfbacked Italy36c2,190$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…382dbacked Venezuela64c2,137$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.311637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Venezuela62c2,014$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.461,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Italy36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Italy36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9998149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cb…d9d2backed Venezuela63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ede…2de3backed Venezuela61c1,961$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.441770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Venezuela55c1,921$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.431,72250.3%867 W · 855 L+55.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Venezuela63c1,818$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.0140846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a3…8665backed Venezuela60c1,789$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Italy48c1,685$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.0921842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd138…3140backed Venezuela64c1,669$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Venezuela77c1,627$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.129241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Venezuela65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.463357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Venezuela57c1,486$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.452,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb82…fd72backed Italy14c1,465$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca4…51cebacked Venezuela64c1,439$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.926100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4712…29ddbacked Venezuela65c1,391$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.61955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed Venezuela80c1,384$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.6715079.3%119 W · 31 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick72cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Venezuela44c1,356$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7565040%20 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa928…bbaabacked Italy37c1,350$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.53857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Italy50c1,349$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.5713441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Venezuela60c1,340$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.3796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed Italy36c1,325$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Venezuela64c1,317$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.684049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Venezuela58c1,298$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.7850962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Venezuela44c1,276$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.641,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…72a9backed Venezuela63c1,250$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Italy36c1,247$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.7946547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Venezuela48c1,210$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.6947545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Italy35c1,208$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.2650751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Italy36c1,200$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.982763%17 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Venezuela72c1,195$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2414039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Italy67c1,172$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.871,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a03…5f4dbacked Italy33c1,139$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Italy39c1,111$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.842951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Venezuela64c1,094$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db3…2a8fbacked Italy37c1,078$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Italy38c1,064$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8413461.9%83 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf595…8413backed Italy2c1,053$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691f…5e69backed Venezuela76c1,035$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.231050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Venezuela77c1,004$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.664459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f0…1438backed Italy1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Venezuela33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6701030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Italy37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Venezuela64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3609021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Italy19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Italy36c999.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3608151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Venezuela72c993$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.447753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11b9…521fbacked Venezuela64c992.66$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.36955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Venezuela52c969.74$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.4235137%130 W · 221 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc6…66d3backed Italy55c947.8$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.27425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Venezuela64c938.93$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.45875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.