UFC · resolved market
Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1040c250383bd856eb1a24eef44915305304b58592fd5a0d66aa504babea2ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 73c | 2,125$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 70c | 659.55$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.68 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 29c | 546.58$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.53 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 70c | 537.5$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.25 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 25c | 404.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 75c | 351.93$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 26c | 350$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 273.66$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…737ebacked Yes | 29c | 273.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 66c | 271.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 73c | 269.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.87 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 71c | 218.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b5…68e1backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…ceb0backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes | 27c | 195$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…22ffbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedd8…dfbabacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 29c | 146.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921e…1e09backed Yes | 28c | 117.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…39cebacked Yes | 29c | 104.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…c648backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 79c | 93.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…6980backed Yes | 29c | 85.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d05…f32cbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…faafbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…1989backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 30c | 58.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…5f34backed No | 76c | 55.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…6bf7backed Yes | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…654dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…fcf5backed Yes | 30c | 46.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Yes | 42c | 33.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 79c | 26.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)Joe Pyfer won
- Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.