UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb816f791d96e5f1a5749ab149bb3f8cc8ba48ea3429bbd33f012254f217193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 43c | 3,438$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.83 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed No | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 1cpaid | +327.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 43c | 724.65$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 26c | 653.14$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.12 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 38c | 495.1$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 57c | 410$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 75c | 263.24$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 37c | 157$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…467cbacked No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…e850backed Yes | 55c | 100.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…b8b8backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 50c | 92.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 49c | 81.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 41c | 80.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 45c | 66.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed No | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked No | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 47c | 41.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked No | 25c | 40.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…9b3dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 43c | 27.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Yes | 53c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…135bbacked Yes | 76c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)Joe Pyfer won
- Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.