UFC · resolved market
Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289630c1882c938ee607027c480abae547773304574613b5113a768c416fe9ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 71c | 3,226$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.94 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 74c | 2,360$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.84 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,922$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 1,154$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.19 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 72c | 1,048$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.8 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a36…dedabacked Yes | 29c | 1,010$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…2835backed Yes | 29c | 840.48$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 30c | 636.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…3204backed Yes | 28c | 615.91$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 28c | 599.6$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 79c | 587.55$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Yes | 23c | 564.13$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 76c | 458$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 72c | 428.58$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…7f92backed Yes | 24c | 414.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 69c | 407.06$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…7653backed Yes | 29c | 375.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…7abbbacked Yes | 35c | 338.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 75c | 332.89$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes | 29c | 310.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Yes | 25c | 290$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 65c | 270.32$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Yes | 26c | 256.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 34c | 208.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 72c | 193.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…4fdebacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 71c | 173.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c63…67abbacked Yes | 29c | 173.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 75c | 155$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3d…d722backed Yes | 27c | 148.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…b176backed Yes | 28c | 143.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…b5b8backed Yes | 29c | 103.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…2d80backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 92.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b2…0b2abacked Yes | 25c | 90.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Yes | 27c | 72.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…2fdcbacked Yes | 26c | 68.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 71c | 66.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…d618backed Yes | 24c | 63.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 70c | 62.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…8adcbacked Yes | 31c | 55.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…2c64backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…f451backed No | 75c | 34.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…a406backed Yes | 32c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 80c | 29.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked No | 80c | 29.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked No | 80c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed No | 80c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 80c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 80c | 20.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…997ebacked No | 77c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 79c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)Joe Pyfer won
- Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.