TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0a36…deda

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
30
Categories scored
2
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: UFC, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 52 out of 100; worst Premier League at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT2948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$293
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Maycee Barber · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$425
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$176.19
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Lerryan Douglas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$105
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Yousri Belgaroui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$138.1
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$78.75
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Gabriella Fernandes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Marcin Tybura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.2
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lerone Murphy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Luke Riley win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Luke Riley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$117.65
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Michael Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$141.67
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$9.94
Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
UFC Fight Night: Danny Silva vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Danny Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$247.76
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Axel Sola · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.16
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Nathaniel Wood · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$925.71
UFC Fight Night: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Felipe Franco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.51
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Harry Hardwick · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Chris Curtis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Vitor Petrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$93.58
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+173.4%+$1,126.98
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.