TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Danny Silva vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Danny Silvaof Danny Silva, Kurtis Campbell
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$563,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563,809 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Danny Silva28c149,989$41,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,212.23842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Kurtis Campbell72c96,374$69,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,803.2710542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Kurtis Campbell72c31,225$22,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,469.753043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Kurtis Campbell75c26,748$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0003441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Kurtis Campbell72c23,500$16,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,92011554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Danny Silva27c23,482$6,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,073.5729151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Kurtis Campbell66c20,855$13,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,859.37650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Danny Silva47c17,982$8,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,464.844829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kurtis Campbell72c14,874$10,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,704.9537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Danny Silva28c14,054$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,085.474548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Danny Silva28c10,000$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,152.077656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Kurtis Campbell71c9,855$6,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,997.3116244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Kurtis Campbell71c8,429$5,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,942.583860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Kurtis Campbell2c7,400$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Kurtis Campbell1c7,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick5cpaid+515.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Danny Silva26c6,612$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.3314551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Kurtis Campbell1c6,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Kurtis Campbell1c6,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Danny Silva27c5,996$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.8928849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kurtis Campbell72c5,668$4,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,081.2614558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Danny Silva27c5,555$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,055.156346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Kurtis Campbell1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Kurtis Campbell3c4,650$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Kurtis Campbell3c4,650$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Danny Silva24c4,100$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,117.4815939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Kurtis Campbell72c4,043$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.1511758.1%68 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8735…41bbbacked Kurtis Campbell1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Kurtis Campbell76c3,608$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Danny Silva29c3,258$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300.498848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Danny Silva28c3,214$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.294665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Kurtis Campbell71c3,118$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Kurtis Campbell2c3,050$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Kurtis Campbell72c2,896$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.122941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Danny Silva28c2,630$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.915139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Danny Silva27c2,597$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.819636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Danny Silva28c2,555$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.620233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Kurtis Campbell1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick5cpaid+238.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Kurtis Campbell72c1,800$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.9726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Danny Silva28c1,787$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.351833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Danny Silva32c1,758$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.6429133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Kurtis Campbell5c1,750$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Kurtis Campbell73c1,678$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Kurtis Campbell67c1,600$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0645736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Danny Silva28c1,560$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.984835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Kurtis Campbell67c1,541$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.8416945.6%77 W · 92 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Kurtis Campbell1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+327.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Kurtis Campbell72c1,491$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.77244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Danny Silva27c1,414$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.216845.6%31 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Kurtis Campbell72c1,349$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.268622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Danny Silva28c1,347$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96626552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Kurtis Campbell2c1,300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+215.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Danny Silva31c1,281$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.415552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Danny Silva28c1,224$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.281361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Kurtis Campbell69c1,120$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7733756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Danny Silva33c1,060$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.023148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Danny Silva34c1,005$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.6536048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Kurtis Campbell72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72011746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Danny Silva35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6501050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf05…f8e1backed Kurtis Campbell67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6701376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Kurtis Campbell1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Danny Silva25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75042254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Kurtis Campbell1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Kurtis Campbell1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Kurtis Campbell1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Danny Silva35c993$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.457251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Danny Silva31c982$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.124240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Kurtis Campbell66c960$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Kurtis Campbell66c960$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.63246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Kurtis Campbell67c911.61$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7836745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Danny Silva29c862.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.0712833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Danny Silva18c854.7$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.7114929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Danny Silva29c821.61$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.8218038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Kurtis Campbell72c777$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.445446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b69…3c3cbacked Kurtis Campbell66c755.63$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.32850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Danny Silva33c750.26$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.6720837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Danny Silva33c716$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.545841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Danny Silva28c700$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50423850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc079…8accbacked Danny Silva28c635$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Danny Silva32c625.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Kurtis Campbell67c598.32$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Kurtis Campbell71c585.78$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.0722438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Danny Silva35c570.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.6810746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Danny Silva24c568.59$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.136048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Kurtis Campbell73c562$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9636755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Kurtis Campbell73c547.95$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007671.1%54 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa70b…7a8abacked Danny Silva28c535.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Kurtis Campbell68c508.91$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.068851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Danny Silva28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36037854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Danny Silva32c499.97$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9815641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Danny Silva27c462.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.964639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Danny Silva29c441.21$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.2651533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2e…c7cfbacked Kurtis Campbell72c426.39$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3071747.1%8 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.23per pick71cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0507…165fbacked Danny Silva34c402.94$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+96.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Kurtis Campbell72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2887647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Danny Silva32c400$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27210843.5%47 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Danny Silva27c392.59$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5920933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Kurtis Campbell72c382$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0424356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Danny Silva33c378.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.793040%12 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Danny Silva28c357.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.65056%28 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Danny Silva71c344.83$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10012449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.