TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lerryan Douglasof Julian Erosa, Lerryan Douglas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$352,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$444,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,849 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Julian Erosa26c68,358$17,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,717.0710949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab82…abe5backed Lerryan Douglas74c52,197$38,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,635.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Julian Erosa29c25,000$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,249.997245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Lerryan Douglas74c21,993$16,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,718.1711554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lerryan Douglas71c17,385$12,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,982.0814558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c9…396dbacked Lerryan Douglas74c16,161$11,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,221.015362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Julian Erosa28c14,997$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.197656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Julian Erosa26c10,720$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.24245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc6…9889backed Julian Erosa27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7004942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Julian Erosa27c9,727$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.6428849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Lerryan Douglas72c7,359$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.684548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Lerryan Douglas71c7,000$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.995250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Lerryan Douglas75c6,667$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.676055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lerryan Douglas75c5,391$4,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.378754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Lerryan Douglas72c5,385$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.773455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lerryan Douglas72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40019544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Lerryan Douglas73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Lerryan Douglas71c4,460$3,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Lerryan Douglas72c3,750$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c68…6746backed Julian Erosa27c3,666$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Julian Erosa26c3,480$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.0914929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Julian Erosa25c3,130$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.5226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Julian Erosa26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78017055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lerryan Douglas73c2,884$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.522729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lerryan Douglas73c2,851$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.1217050.6%86 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Julian Erosa26c2,850$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7417528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ee…c2c8backed Julian Erosa26c2,836$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Lerryan Douglas74c2,789$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.171450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Julian Erosa26c2,700$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71520954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Lerryan Douglas71c2,483$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.015139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Julian Erosa18c2,364$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.1926736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Lerryan Douglas71c2,344$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.7910035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf398…a9b1backed Lerryan Douglas74c2,025$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Julian Erosa7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14026451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Lerryan Douglas73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5405156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Lerryan Douglas73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5406246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ff…ed99backed Julian Erosa27c1,920$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Julian Erosa25c1,896$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0122144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aab…9ae0backed Lerryan Douglas76c1,883$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.965752.6%30 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Julian Erosa26c1,750$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4553435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lerryan Douglas72c1,727$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.7214551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Julian Erosa29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43520233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Julian Erosa26c1,455$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.2729133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Julian Erosa25c1,377$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2512134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f4…874abacked Julian Erosa29c1,266$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Lerryan Douglas74c1,130$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.754072.5%29 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x567d…68bfbacked Julian Erosa27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Lerryan Douglas72c1,050$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2944839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b6…865cbacked Julian Erosa26c1,042$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Julian Erosa9c1,034$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4822438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Julian Erosa9c1,001$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2233132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Lerryan Douglas75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Julian Erosa1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+327.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Julian Erosa22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1b…724fbacked Lerryan Douglas75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504981.6%40 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Lerryan Douglas74c999.97$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Lerryan Douglas73c999.97$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.994353.5%23 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Lerryan Douglas73c999$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9523850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Lerryan Douglas71c991.3$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5887…b2a1backed Julian Erosa27c981.48$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-71.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbe93…3638backed Lerryan Douglas74c945.95$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.951040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Lerryan Douglas74c924.45$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.3631855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Julian Erosa26c858.88$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.319228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Lerryan Douglas73c796.97$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.184463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c62…d8d6backed Julian Erosa21c785.27$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.919845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Lerryan Douglas73c754.6$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.743141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa070…cd87backed Julian Erosa27c750$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+73.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Lerryan Douglas73c750$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Julian Erosa27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Julian Erosa27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Lerryan Douglas75c738.69$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6711761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Julian Erosa22c700$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141a…95a9backed Julian Erosa25c692.65$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1754454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Julian Erosa29c687.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Julian Erosa29c674.38$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5742054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Lerryan Douglas74c672.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.511364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f08…57bcbacked Lerryan Douglas74c640.26$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.571050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501a…b930backed Lerryan Douglas72c640.07$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.221361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Lerryan Douglas75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Julian Erosa4c599.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…68d7backed Julian Erosa27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Lerryan Douglas73c537$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.172450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Lerryan Douglas74c524.89$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8915656.4%88 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Lerryan Douglas74c506$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.612454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03de…4bfdbacked Julian Erosa5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Lerryan Douglas72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14036655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Lerryan Douglas79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10516745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Julian Erosa18c500$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8952252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Lerryan Douglas73c480.56$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.566555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Julian Erosa27c450$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.520933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Lerryan Douglas74c416$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1635664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Julian Erosa3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Julian Erosa26c397.61$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.384035%14 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4533…0adcbacked Julian Erosa25c394.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.61520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e22…237ebacked Julian Erosa30c383.91$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1149337.6%35 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Julian Erosa26c382.35$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5127448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a36…dedabacked Lerryan Douglas72c375$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Lerryan Douglas72c375$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.784240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Lerryan Douglas74c363.92$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Julian Erosa28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.813940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.