TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mario Pintoof Mario Pinto, Felipe Franco
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,115 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23c8…f293backed Felipe Franco9c23,404$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.337534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Felipe Franco10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Felipe Franco11c17,268$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.964548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Felipe Franco10c15,858$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.826743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Felipe Franco19c15,676$2,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,926.54835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Felipe Franco9c10,770$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97710035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…db86backed Felipe Franco1c8,333$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb79…0811backed Felipe Franco0c7,571$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.911450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Felipe Franco18c6,727$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Felipe Franco5c6,141$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0216745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Felipe Franco16c6,095$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Felipe Franco10c6,025$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.59636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Felipe Franco10c4,683$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.271233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Felipe Franco12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Felipe Franco14c2,830$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.2120233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Felipe Franco11c2,687$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.242832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Felipe Franco10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Felipe Franco11c2,388$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.248754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Felipe Franco7c1,792$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6629133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4205…128ebacked Felipe Franco12c1,668$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-70.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb788…2b73backed Felipe Franco10c1,649$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Felipe Franco10c1,530$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Felipe Franco11c1,187$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.578851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed Felipe Franco10c1,147$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-61.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Felipe Franco10c1,130$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Felipe Franco14c1,004$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.219746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Felipe Franco16c1,003$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5116156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Felipe Franco16c976$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.415841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Felipe Franco17c900.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Felipe Franco12c880$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e58…5cf7backed Felipe Franco13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Felipe Franco10c755.7$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.578622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Felipe Franco11c719.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.114929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Felipe Franco17c704$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.923148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Felipe Franco11c696.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Mario Pinto77c662$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.263860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Felipe Franco17c600$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.984240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Felipe Franco17c514.68$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0507…165fbacked Felipe Franco15c506.38$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+96.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f7…6533backed Felipe Franco11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Felipe Franco12c499.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9960%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Felipe Franco11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9639…4a68backed Felipe Franco18c422.83$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.251947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…85ccbacked Felipe Franco20c385.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Felipe Franco13c385.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d0…5ea8backed Felipe Franco9c317.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304330.2%13 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Felipe Franco15c316.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1114344.1%63 W · 80 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Felipe Franco11c306.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.674032.5%13 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3211…49e2backed Felipe Franco14c290.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.623928.2%11 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Felipe Franco14c270$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.922729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Felipe Franco10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91a…4ea7backed Felipe Franco12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b9b…44c3backed Felipe Franco11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252236.4%8 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Felipe Franco8c219$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.76825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a36…dedabacked Felipe Franco10c215.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.512948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Felipe Franco14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked Felipe Franco11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked Felipe Franco11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1de6…0b70backed Felipe Franco14c176.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.38267.7%2 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-84.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Felipe Franco13c170.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.598848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd417…327abacked Felipe Franco17c170$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.42450%12 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…b420backed Felipe Franco15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb0…22c4backed Felipe Franco13c164.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8271…1b26backed Felipe Franco10c161.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124628.3%13 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…02a0backed Felipe Franco14c147.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c65…6b11backed Felipe Franco14c145.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205962.7%37 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e5…1d48backed Felipe Franco14c144.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011057.3%63 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc363…8845backed Felipe Franco8c142.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+32%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Felipe Franco15c141.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8513221.2%28 W · 104 L-11.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Felipe Franco13c140.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.075650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Felipe Franco16c129.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Felipe Franco13c118.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…c75cbacked Felipe Franco15c114.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.211656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Felipe Franco11c111.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9144…e52abacked Felipe Franco11c107.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c7…909dbacked Felipe Franco15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155250%26 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a36…428fbacked Felipe Franco11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117145.1%32 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb16d…bc9bbacked Felipe Franco17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+148.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Mario Pinto78c66.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c6c…b6d7backed Felipe Franco21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.