UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd703fe9b210706e9bae150a2ed8b996439b0cda519d5beaabe7c1c6a0e9236cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,979 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 2,255$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.68 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 41c | 1,576$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.12 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Over | 42c | 641.09$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…6851backed Over | 42c | 510$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 60c | 438$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 37c | 190.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…fe3abacked Under | 64c | 170$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…8fa8backed Under | 63c | 161.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 34c | 81.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 40c | 78.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 38c | 72.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 53c | 68.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 63c | 57.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…84ebbacked Under | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Over | 51c | 30.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 62c | 22.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco (Heavyweight, Prelims)Mario Pinto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.