UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9877f50b0f212ca17d0766a947dd22eb8bdafa6362c7873dd42764887b2e401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 33c | 1,199$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.82 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 68c | 441.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…96bebacked Under | 67c | 388.06$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 340.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.83 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…6851backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 64c | 208.11$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…fe3abacked Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Under | 69c | 169.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Under | 69c | 169.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 67c | 154.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Under | 67c | 141.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Over | 36c | 83.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…6559backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a36…dedabacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…84ebbacked Under | 65c | 34.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 69c | 31.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…e850backed Over | 49c | 30.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked Under | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1027backed Under | 68c | 14.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Prelims)Mantas Kondratavicius won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.