UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5548d051de4786e95c1fd417d3ccf81e0817803821a7104b7f9cfe3ae9ceb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mantas Kondrataviciusof Antonio Trocoli, Mantas Kondratavicius
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,445 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 19,695$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.54 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Antonio Trocoli | 5c | 14,933$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.93 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 12,929$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.72 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Antonio Trocoli | 0c | 10,302$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 7,737$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.77 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 6,373$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Antonio Trocoli | 9c | 5,555$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.5 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Antonio Trocoli | 3c | 3,896$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…06d9backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 3,552$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Antonio Trocoli | 1c | 3,151$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Antonio Trocoli | 6c | 2,837$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.35 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Antonio Trocoli | 5c | 2,830$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 2,770$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.7 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 2,760$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Antonio Trocoli | 9c | 2,572$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.45 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Antonio Trocoli | 9c | 2,210$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Antonio Trocoli | 9c | 1,890$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 1,857$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Antonio Trocoli | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Antonio Trocoli | 5c | 1,419$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…6657backed Antonio Trocoli | 8c | 1,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 1,130$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Antonio Trocoli | 9c | 1,035$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Antonio Trocoli | 13c | 988.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 953.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…5cf7backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 879.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 854.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…1649backed Antonio Trocoli | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Antonio Trocoli | 4c | 749.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…7d71backed Antonio Trocoli | 9c | 719.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Antonio Trocoli | 13c | 718.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…5ea8backed Antonio Trocoli | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 666$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…e175backed Antonio Trocoli | 8c | 625.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 616.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Antonio Trocoli | 15c | 454.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…6533backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 446.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed Antonio Trocoli | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb363…db78backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Antonio Trocoli | 13c | 339$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Antonio Trocoli | 6c | 287.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Antonio Trocoli | 13c | 269.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…ae28backed Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Antonio Trocoli | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…44c3backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…1e5cbacked Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 223.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Antonio Trocoli | 15c | 211.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…e850backed Antonio Trocoli | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Antonio Trocoli | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…d75ebacked Antonio Trocoli | 14c | 179.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 172.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…22c4backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 167.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 161$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Antonio Trocoli | 16c | 149.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 146$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Antonio Trocoli | 11c | 146$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Antonio Trocoli | 16c | 127.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Antonio Trocoli | 15c | 113.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Antonio Trocoli | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked Antonio Trocoli | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…23b9backed Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…8e5dbacked Antonio Trocoli | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Antonio Trocoli | 12c | 89.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.