TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michael Pageof Michael Page, Sam Patterson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,131,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,131,391 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 599 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Michael Page66c265,420$174,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,437.723842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a0…9a09backed Michael Page63c164,312$103,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,795.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Michael Page64c161,192$103,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,086.9510949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Sam Patterson37c150,000$55,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,499.9616244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Sam Patterson34c148,650$50,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,413.499240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd26e…6d8dbacked Sam Patterson31c101,845$31,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,075.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Sam Patterson33c63,572$20,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,811.9810542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Sam Patterson34c41,109$14,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,132.629151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Sam Patterson36c40,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,40011554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Sam Patterson36c40,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,4003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Sam Patterson6c31,887$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Sam Patterson36c28,908$10,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4078434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Sam Patterson34c28,049$9,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,535.256238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Sam Patterson36c27,778$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0003441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Michael Page67c25,542$17,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,468.897245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Sam Patterson34c24,837$8,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,350.047534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sam Patterson37c19,234$7,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,105.988848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Michael Page64c16,193$10,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,829.5311558.3%67 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sam Patterson7c15,438$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.4115939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Sam Patterson23c14,695$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.363860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Sam Patterson35c11,672$4,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,058.2526743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Michael Page72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.987656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sam Patterson37c10,000$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,659.9728849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Michael Page65c9,393$6,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.78944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Michael Page64c8,708$5,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.878754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Michael Page65c8,666$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.9553956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Sam Patterson33c8,003$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,637.84839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Sam Patterson37c8,000$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9606738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Sam Patterson33c7,599$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.5614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Sam Patterson37c7,455$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.66850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Sam Patterson34c7,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.036346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sam Patterson36c6,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9330039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9b…573fbacked Michael Page65c5,850$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Sam Patterson37c5,405$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Sam Patterson5c4,928$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.21540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Michael Page63c4,735$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.9330964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9325…3d94backed Michael Page67c4,500$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9451…c3f9backed Michael Page66c3,939$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.391338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Michael Page66c3,227$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.271353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed2…4671backed Michael Page63c3,175$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.65954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5f…b574backed Michael Page64c3,137$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.256262.9%39 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Sam Patterson27c3,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Sam Patterson35c2,914$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.922142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Michael Page63c2,762$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.9535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3da…c0ddbacked Sam Patterson37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3b…eeb1backed Michael Page71c2,677$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.23250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9948…47e7backed Sam Patterson37c2,676$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Michael Page63c2,619$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.052748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Sam Patterson35c2,544$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.6729133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Sam Patterson37c2,500$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9256354%34 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Sam Patterson36c2,348$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.367343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Michael Page67c2,200$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7261361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Michael Page64c2,172$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.7714558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3723…1fdabacked Michael Page64c2,070$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.193100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe93…3638backed Michael Page64c2,067$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.191040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Sam Patterson35c2,002$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.7318038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Sam Patterson37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74025251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Michael Page63c1,892$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.86580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bd6…15d9backed Michael Page63c1,858$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Sam Patterson37c1,853$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.53964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Michael Page65c1,641$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.6141754%225 W · 192 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Michael Page64c1,600$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5765250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Sam Patterson35c1,549$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5421758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Sam Patterson36c1,520$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.181127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Sam Patterson3c1,496$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4620837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Michael Page64c1,414$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.779756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Sam Patterson34c1,405$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.868622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Sam Patterson35c1,400$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aab…9ae0backed Michael Page66c1,396$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.715752.6%30 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8079…bebfbacked Michael Page64c1,352$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d61…d3e2backed Michael Page64c1,344$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…3552backed Michael Page63c1,324$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.87650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Sam Patterson35c1,273$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.711332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Michael Page65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4208650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Sam Patterson1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+327.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Sam Patterson35c1,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Sam Patterson27c1,142$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.346048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed Michael Page65c1,098$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Michael Page66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3406953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Sam Patterson5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Michael Page66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34035564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Michael Page64c993$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.482045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked Sam Patterson38c965.46$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.779459.6%56 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Sam Patterson37c951.62$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.112134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff4…d53cbacked Michael Page64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed Michael Page64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.56448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Michael Page64c832.67$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Michael Page64c827$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x658c…029cbacked Michael Page63c820.63$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.631973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+60%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b69…3c3cbacked Michael Page63c794$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.78850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Michael Page64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.258640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fcb…f91abacked Michael Page64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.253246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Michael Page64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.251080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+58.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59d0…d98ebacked Michael Page64c780.84$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Sam Patterson9c779.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7626352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fd1…cfb5backed Michael Page66c762.31$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.312536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…68d7backed Michael Page66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.589855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Sam Patterson7c723.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2922438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Sam Patterson35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24523850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Sam Patterson26c699.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.