UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ac7cebaffdd31e5ba6f72e3ee0b3e5e513f9dfc19d7561c0e96b046b470e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,954 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 51c | 5,676$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.65 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 3,573$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.78 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 48c | 1,137$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.65 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…6851backed Over | 51c | 980.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 826.39$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.15 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…3b3ebacked Under | 52c | 560.83$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 19c | 409.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 48c | 403.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 389$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Over | 57c | 174.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…3676backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Over | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…8e5dbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…40a6backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)Michael Page won
- Will Michael Page win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.