UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8799a2c228c7cce3ac2e2686d082edb2a3b9165471a7b876d3b1588d74ea5189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,147 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 43c | 823.37$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.41 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 56c | 599.82$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.9 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed No | 57c | 477.1$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 43c | 329.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 43c | 257.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…4392backed No | 60c | 205.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 57c | 148.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 66c | 109$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…c3f0backed Yes | 49c | 103.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 55c | 98.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 57c | 84.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…faafbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…ba62backed Yes | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked No | 31c | 34.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…6878backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 44c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…be77backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)Michael Page won
- Will Michael Page win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.