UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e5f13f6e304e27a37567e21328de14cb711d2d02364552a80ecf73f08a8e9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luke Rileyof Luke Riley, Michael Aswell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,131,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,131,102 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 474 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Luke Riley | 67c | 300,000$199,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,352.69 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Michael Aswell | 34c | 283,463$96,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,629.62 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 188,220$61,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,720.37 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Luke Riley | 67c | 180,892$121,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,799.01 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Michael Aswell | 32c | 47,553$15,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,217.64 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Luke Riley | 68c | 31,762$21,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,169.22 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Michael Aswell | 34c | 31,108$10,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,576.62 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Michael Aswell | 32c | 30,335$9,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,714.54 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…87debacked Luke Riley | 66c | 30,303$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,303.03 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Luke Riley | 66c | 29,989$19,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,196.39 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 24,832$8,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,254.11 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Michael Aswell | 7c | 24,557$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.54 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Michael Aswell | 32c | 23,988$7,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,669.54 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Michael Aswell | 6c | 16,500$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.56 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Michael Aswell | 35c | 16,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Luke Riley | 69c | 16,000$10,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,028.1 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Michael Aswell | 32c | 14,987$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,859.52 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 14,907$4,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Luke Riley | 68c | 14,706$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Luke Riley | 71c | 14,674$10,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,313.62 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Michael Aswell | 35c | 10,691$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Luke Riley | 66c | 10,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Luke Riley | 69c | 9,696$6,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Michael Aswell | 24c | 8,685$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Luke Riley | 65c | 8,509$5,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,991.7 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Michael Aswell | 34c | 8,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 7,952$2,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.76 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…06d9backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 7,450$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked Michael Aswell | 32c | 7,380$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Michael Aswell | 34c | 7,000$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Luke Riley | 65c | 6,812$4,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Michael Aswell | 28c | 6,616$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.89 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Michael Aswell | 8c | 6,461$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Michael Aswell | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.97 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…7d71backed Michael Aswell | 31c | 5,880$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3723…1fdabacked Luke Riley | 65c | 5,385$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Luke Riley | 66c | 5,330$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Luke Riley | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.99 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Luke Riley | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Luke Riley | 66c | 3,798$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Luke Riley | 64c | 3,478$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.18 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Luke Riley | 68c | 3,465$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.71 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Luke Riley | 65c | 3,078$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.46 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Luke Riley | 68c | 2,941$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Michael Aswell | 31c | 2,920$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Luke Riley | 68c | 2,600$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Luke Riley | 79c | 2,600$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Michael Aswell | 9c | 2,326$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Michael Aswell | 34c | 2,260$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.87 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Luke Riley | 65c | 2,210$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.3 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Luke Riley | 65c | 1,981$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.29 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Luke Riley | 68c | 1,911$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.53 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Luke Riley | 68c | 1,884$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.37 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 1,825$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.67 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 1,760$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 1,714$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Michael Aswell | 36c | 1,705$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Michael Aswell | 27c | 1,700$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.5 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 1,684$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.62 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Luke Riley | 62c | 1,662$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Luke Riley | 68c | 1,647$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.04 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…2085backed Luke Riley | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Michael Aswell | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Michael Aswell | 36c | 1,467$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…767dbacked Michael Aswell | 11c | 1,371$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Michael Aswell | 5c | 1,331$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c93…f0f6backed Luke Riley | 68c | 1,158$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michael Aswell | 32c | 1,117$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.59 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…e0dabacked Luke Riley | 65c | 1,089$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Luke Riley | 70c | 1,077$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.48 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…47e7backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 1,063$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Luke Riley | 68c | 1,050$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Michael Aswell | 29c | 1,014$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.83 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 994$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.9 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Luke Riley | 65c | 909$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Luke Riley | 66c | 902.52$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Luke Riley | 80c | 901.54$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.37 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Luke Riley | 69c | 894$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.14 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…ba62backed Luke Riley | 71c | 855.89$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.17 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Luke Riley | 70c | 810$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b69…3c3cbacked Luke Riley | 64c | 789.99$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Luke Riley | 68c | 780$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Michael Aswell | 33c | 777$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.41 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Michael Aswell | 25c | 768.23$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Luke Riley | 66c | 750$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…9ae0backed Michael Aswell | 42c | 709.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…0f85backed Luke Riley | 64c | 676.47$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.47 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Luke Riley | 68c | 661.76$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Luke Riley | 65c | 612$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.69 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…68d7backed Michael Aswell | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Luke Riley | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Michael Aswell | 16c | 599.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 564.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…8a18backed Michael Aswell | 35c | 558$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Luke Riley | 69c | 546.78$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Luke Riley | 68c | 537.71$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Michael Aswell | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Michael Aswell | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Luke Riley | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Luke Riley | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Luke Riley win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.