TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe7bc…0f85

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: UFC, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 60 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2277.3%17 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
UFC — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Tommy Gantt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$190
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Daniel Barez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.99
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Nicolle Caliari · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$98.23
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Polyana Viana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.4
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Khamzat Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$947Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$947
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)backed King Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$187.5
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)backed Jose Ochoa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$358.06
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Aljamain Sterling · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$90.61
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Jackson McVey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$28.77
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Charles Jourdain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$696Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$569.21
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Mandel Nallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.01
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Jasmine Jasudavicius · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$156.13
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Virna Jandiroba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$470
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jose Delano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$100.93
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Alice Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$373.83
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Dione Barbosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$448.25
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Kai Kamaka III · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$116.99
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Luke Riley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$242.47
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Roman Dolidze · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC Fight Night: Danny Silva vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Danny Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$122.41
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mason Jones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$705
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Marwan Rahiki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$29.7
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$437.44
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,506Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,506.1
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.63
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$168.11
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$59.01
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.28
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.38
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,199.48
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$469.2
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+37%+$270
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.08
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$71.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$264.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$15.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$455.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.