TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,815,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,818,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,815,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,779 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Magic22c648,264$143,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,267.479745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Pistons78c589,525$459,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,695.5460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Magic24c487,981$117,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,736.1413642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Pistons78c394,720$307,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,838.43770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic23c372,979$85,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,801.831,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Magic0c277,129$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.225925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Magic21c243,229$52,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,050.2696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic23c202,848$46,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,8702,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pistons77c194,808$149,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,353.8743148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Magic19c179,476$33,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,592.7142348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed Pistons78c166,924$130,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,723.225940.7%24 W · 35 L-12.5wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-41.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe30e…6b87backed Pistons78c133,218$103,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,307.96875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pistons77c123,881$95,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,911.461,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbba9…f183backed Magic22c121,249$27,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,1622227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Magic22c119,317$25,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,784.2485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b1…da36backed Magic14c117,992$16,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,399.662441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+115.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Magic23c90,992$20,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,935.3929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic22c75,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,50074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic22c67,882$14,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,766.531,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Magic23c62,667$14,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,413.328035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pistons78c61,258$47,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,488.691,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pistons79c51,994$41,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,918.721,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Pistons74c49,279$36,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,667.5534456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pistons77c48,126$37,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,042.091,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Magic22c43,327$9,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5327243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Pistons77c42,505$32,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,776.0924650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Magic23c42,091$9,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,533.513411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Pistons76c41,800$31,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,03259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons77c40,000$30,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,199.964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Pistons68c39,640$26,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,684.8916346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Magic23c38,438$8,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,840.7728643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Magic18c37,691$6,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,667.636341.3%26 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Magic22c37,628$8,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,278.227650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic1c37,304$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.61,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49e7…ea12backed Magic21c36,633$7,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,692.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Magic11c34,422$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.9610239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked Magic22c33,262$7,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,317.738038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…3684backed Magic2c30,138$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.732133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Pistons78c29,984$23,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,596.5911447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Magic22c29,377$6,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.8720454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b8…b4aebacked Magic15c29,344$4,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,281.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Magic0c28,204$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Pistons79c27,810$21,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,971.4890650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Pistons77c27,793$21,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,392.3615644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic22c27,198$5,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,983.6672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Pistons78c26,456$20,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,821.5717055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Pistons77c25,850$19,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.58763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Magic13c25,734$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,279.0920352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Magic20c25,196$5,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.1749244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Magic23c25,187$5,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,793.0335744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Pistons79c24,822$19,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,245.4320946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic17c24,763$4,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,228.733,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pistons78c23,743$18,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,170.321,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons75c22,878$17,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,673.392,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pistons79c22,117$17,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,731.821,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Magic22c21,614$4,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,755.19330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Magic2c21,406$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.0628056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Magic1c21,359$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6119033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Magic2c21,355$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47220146.8%94 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Magic1c21,285$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.218842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfc…bf06backed Magic23c20,984$4,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,826.231020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Pistons69c20,426$14,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,331.9322458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Pistons79c19,257$15,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,064.7532351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Pistons78c19,216$14,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,227.5310158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed Magic22c19,000$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.063839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Magic22c19,000$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,179.9635251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aab…c4ddbacked Pistons77c18,437$14,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,285.847839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Pistons78c17,600$13,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,871.9843352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Pistons69c17,068$11,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,291.0316846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Magic1c16,874$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.073179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6584…88c0backed Magic24c14,518$3,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,513.436240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Magic24c14,316$3,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.8413544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Magic0c14,111$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7267911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Pistons79c13,773$10,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.2727163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Magic22c13,721$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.7335650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Magic23c13,200$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0365747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Magic23c13,016$2,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.725550.9%28 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Pistons74c12,966$9,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.562458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Magic16c12,870$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.59018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Pistons77c12,808$9,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.7914766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Pistons78c12,651$9,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.282748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd870…9b36backed Magic22c12,627$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.021080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+73.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Magic3c12,401$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Magic18c11,830$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.422330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91fd…be4ebacked Magic17c11,103$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.07520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Magic2c11,077$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8158740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a60…d8e5backed Magic1c10,922$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.573036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4db9…14f5backed Magic0c10,820$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9710235.3%36 W · 66 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Pistons77c10,742$8,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.766259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic32c10,462$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,343.181,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Pistons78c10,072$7,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.910645.3%48 W · 58 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Magic11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10027731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Pistons77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.995246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pistons78c10,000$7,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic23c9,821$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.751,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Magic0c9,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic23c9,386$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.711,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa8…e9abbacked Magic23c9,237$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons77c9,171$7,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.