NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x004ae0b9beb12bfdf3adad6446c87994909fcded9d81238b78c326fa156f9a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Magic | 5c | 7,921$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.86 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Magic | 1c | 6,885$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Magic | 6c | 3,191$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pistons | 47c | 2,942$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.62 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Magic | 3c | 2,082$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons | 46c | 1,620$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.52 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…933bbacked Pistons | 61c | 1,615$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Magic | 3c | 1,340$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Magic | 40c | 1,234$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.98 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Magic | 54c | 1,044$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.43 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Magic | 64c | 764.38$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.2 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…3a96backed Magic | 62c | 629.13$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Magic | 8c | 585.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Magic | 3c | 576.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Magic | 64c | 458.63$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.52 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Pistons | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 53c | 331.17$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Magic | 64c | 248.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Pistons | 36c | 225.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Magic | 7c | 158.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Magic | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Magic | 52c | 145.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pistons | 50c | 134.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…3492backed Pistons | 69c | 128.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 248 | 56.5%140 W · 108 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Magic | 49c | 120.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Magic | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Pistons | 73c | 94.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…a1f1backed Magic | 39c | 86.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Magic | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…aa62backed Magic | 39c | 79.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 26c | 70.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Pistons | 78c | 63.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Pistons | 63c | 56.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Pistons | 44c | 51.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…9891backed Pistons | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Magic | 39c | 42.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…be50backed Magic | 57c | 42.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…efd8backed Magic | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Magic | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Magic won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 193.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 194.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 196.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 200.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-21.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-25.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.