TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $725 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…0308backed No44c229.99$101 inLost-$101.256050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes56c202.7$114 inWon+$89.1925657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No45c94.98$42 inLost-$42.2912642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes55c64.5$35 inWon+$29.0311056.4%62 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Yes52c45.87$24 inWon+$22.029239.1%36 W · 56 L-10.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon+$17.621646.3%100 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f7…5bd7backed No45c38.68$17 inLost-$17.416540%26 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1495…d3f9backed Yes57c37.38$21 inWon+$15.9415048%72 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked No50c33.31$17 inLost-$16.651,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed No48c28.26$14 inLost-$13.5631748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Yes56c26.08$15 inWon+$11.4714953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No44c25.33$11 inLost-$11.1440546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No43c25$11 inLost-$10.7562047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.