TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,794 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No50c647.92$327 inWon+$321.341,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e9…3614backed Yes49c478.28$234 inLost-$234.134050%20 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…57febacked Yes51c475.81$241 inLost-$241.410245.1%46 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Yes50c416.07$208 inLost-$207.956836.8%25 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No49c250$123 inWon+$127.55,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No50c200$100 inWon+$10056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked No51c188.97$97 inWon+$91.895451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No52c100$52 inWon+$4841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes48c96.88$47 inLost-$46.593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c54.81$26 inWon+$28.590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xddf2…8bf0backed Yes48c30.28$15 inLost-$14.535947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No49c30$15 inWon+$15.333556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No51c28.55$15 inWon+$13.9914953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Yes52c28.11$15 inLost-$14.5731748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed No52c20.83$11 inWon+$1040053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.